“When will the pandemic end?” The question has been swirling in our minds for two years. There have been so many different answers to this question that people no longer know whom to believe. In the process, a voice came out of every head, and it continues to come out. But which guess is closest to the right? Let’s look at the picture from a wider perspective, let’s try to find an answer to this question and see if the time to get rid of the epidemic is near.
Think about the first days when the pandemic, which we have been in the grip of for two years, entered our lives; The coronavirus, which we say “kills up to 1000 people”, in two years hundreds of thousands of people in our country, 6 million people in the world We would have laughed if they said it would take them out of life. This whole process came as a shock to those of us who thought that such great deadly epidemics remained in the dusty pages of history. However, there was always the possibility of this bad scenario realizing, but we were not conscious enough about it. This epidemic, which was an ordinary routine for humanity, was not even close to being ordinary for new generations.
How long will it take us to get back to our old normal that we miss? When are we going to get rid of masks completely? When will we completely get rid of the “put your mask” announcements in public transport, hearing the statements of the Minister of Health, the HES code, the tests that burn our nose, the psychedelic theories of the anti-vaccine? These questions no definite answer yet but when you read all the explanations below, the possible end date of the pandemic will be shaped in your mind.
Many vaccines have been developed against the virus. Scientists are also working on drugs. Thanks to these, we started to see the light at the end of the tunnel. So when do we get out of the tunnel?
In order to fully understand this, it is necessary to go to the beginning of the “when will it end predictions”. Because the first estimates were quite unsuccessful in predicting the end date of the pandemic.
25 April 2020 – Coronavirus Scientific Committee Member İlhami Çelik said that they thought that they could return to normal life in June 2020, but despite the fact that almost two years have passed since this prediction, which made people hopeful, a return to normal could not be achieved. Fortunately, he didn’t use precise language.There is no scientific evidence for this“This is our prediction,” he said.
April 26, 2020 – Scientists in Singapore claimed that they predicted the end of the epidemic both in the world and in Turkey, with a model they made. They said that if the measures are followed, the epidemic will end on the following dates, but either because their modeling is wrong or because the measures are not followed adequately. predictions did not hold.
97% chance May 29, 2020
99% chance 16 June 2020
100% chance 8 December 2020
June 15, 2021 – Member of the Scientific Committee of the Ministry of Health Prof. Dr. Mustafa Necmi İlhan said that if everything goes well, 60% of the population will be immunized or vaccinated, which will enable us to return to daily life at the beginning of September 2021. The reason why İlhan’s prediction did not come true the stated conditions are not met.
September 27, 2021 – Albert Bourla, Pfizer CEO,”In a year I think we can go back to normal life. This does not mean that new variants will not emerge and we can live our lives without a vaccine.”
October 10, 2021 Saying that the unpredictability of human behavior poses a danger, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said that human behavior did not show a good attitude during the pandemic and that the end of the pandemic dependent on human behavior He made an important point by stating that In other words, the reason why predictions don’t hold well is related to the unpredictability of human behavior.
October 25, 2021 – World Health Organization Director General Dr. Tedros stated that the epidemic is far from ending, as there is inequality in vaccination on a global scale. “When will the epidemic end?” “My answer is, ‘The epidemic will end when the world chooses to end it’. This is in our hands. We have all the tools we need, effective public health tools and effective medical tools. However, the world did not use these tools, the epidemic is far from ending with almost 50 thousand doses per week.” He used his expressions. He stated that the epidemic could be overcome if the G20 and countries that reached 40% vaccination gave their places to other countries in need of vaccine during the COVID-19 vaccine.
7 November 2021 – Coranavirus Scientific Committee Member Prof. Dr. Tevfik Özlü said, “I do not see anything on the horizon that will stop this in the near future. Vaccinations have been very beneficial in that respect, severe cases have decreased. Deaths have not yet been prevented at the desired level in the world. Vaccination is not going very well in the world either. “If we can get vaccinated quickly, prevent serious illness and death, if we can make it an ordinary seasonal illness like the flu, then we can get back to normal life,” he said.
18 November 2021 – Bill Gates’ prediction looks more realistic. “In the middle of next year I don’t think dangerous variants will appear” said Gates, stating that he believes that the death and infection rates due to COVID-19 will reach seasonal flu levels by mid-2022.
24 November 2021 – COVID-19 Special Representative of the WHO Director-General Dr. David Nabarro, “The COVID-19 pandemic has been around for quite some time, months, maybe looks like it will take years“Because a highly contagious virus can easily and quickly infect humans,” he said.
December 1, 2021 – Prof. Dr. Alper Sener, vaccine injustice and lack of access to vaccines He stated that it was not a coincidence that new variants emerged in countries where it was effective, such as South Africa, India or Brazil. Şener said, “There is a group that still resists being vaccinated. This group is the population that the variant likes the most. If vaccination is high, we will reduce the potential for variants to emerge within us. We see that these variants emerge in countries where 95% of them are not vaccinated. dream.” He drew attention to an important reason why the pandemic took so long.
January 11, 2022 – Although the European Medicines Agency (EMA) officials do not positively evaluate the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, it is due to the pandemic. to the endemic He said it could lead to “When will we reach the light at the end of the tunnel?” said Marco Cavaleri, EMA’s head of vaccine strategy. “We don’t know this, but the important thing is that the virus has become more endemic. However, we cannot say that we have become endemic at the moment. The coronavirus is still acting like a pandemic virus right now. Emergency cases from Omicron show us that.” had replied. Cavaleri is used in addition to vaccines with the increase of immunity among the population and the spread of the Omicron variant. natural immunity will increaseThus, he stated that rapid progress can be seen from a pandemic to a scenario closer to endemic.
January 15, 2022 – Professor Julian Hiscox, University of Liverpool, “In 2022, life will be almost like before the pandemic” in his opinion: What has changed is our immunity to the virus. We were vulnerable to the virus that emerged in Wuhan two years ago. It was a completely new virus to our immune system; We didn’t have any medicine or vaccine. What happened next can be compared to throwing a Molotov cocktail at a fireworks factory. Covid has spread all over the world with explosive speed, but The same fire cannot burn with the same intensity forever.. There were two options; Either we would put out the fire of COVID or it would go out in the long run. It would be mixed with other endemic diseases such as flu, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria. According to many experts, there can be no other end than this for a virus that is transmitted through the air without the person realizing it. The only thing that can change this positive trend is; There may be a new variant that will break Omicron’s dominance and cause more severe disease.
17 February 2022 – CEO of BioNTech Ugur SahinHe said that the world will live with the coronavirus for many more years. “We have to accept that we will have to live with the virus for the next ten years,” Şahin said.
February 19, 2022 – Prof. Dr. Osman Muftuoglu: Omicron, which transmits and spreads at an extraordinary rate, but whose efficacy and disease duration is shorter and weaker than previous variants, will of course not make COVID-19 history, but it has a high potential to at least make it a “domesticated virus”. This means that the pandemic has turned into an endemic, that the issue of COVID-19 has become an endemic winter infection. Some key experts also suggest that we could be in even more trouble with a new variant that could come out of so many cases.
February 19, 2022 – Bill Gates, said that the risks of COVID-19 have decreased in the last period, but it is almost certain that the world will see another pandemic. According to Gates, a potential new pandemic will be caused by a different pathogen of the coronavirus family.
If we make an inference from all these;
Due to factors such as the spread of anti-vaccination and the inability to vaccinate people in poor countries, the pandemic took much longer than expected. The goal of vaccinating 70% of the world’s population has not been met. Therefore, the coronavirus will be in our lives for many more years, but it will be more endemic. The word we will hear instead of pandemic from now on “endemic” will be. This means that COVID-19 will be permanent in our lives. It looks like we can move on to a life without masks this summer. Restrictions may begin to be lifted in other countries as well as in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.
Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
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