Gold prices experienced a dramatic sell-off this week. It also continued a downward trend that began after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on the 20th and reiterated that interest rates would remain high for longer than previously anticipated.
What does the weekly gold price survey show?
According to the latest Kitco Weekly Gold Survey, most market analysts are optimistic that gold will recover in the near term. However, retail investors are more evenly split after seven consecutive sessions of losses. 13 Wall Street analysts voted in the Gold Survey this week. Seven experts (54%) expect gold prices to rise next week. Four analysts (31%) predict that prices will decrease. Only two analysts (15%) remained neutral on gold for the coming week.
Meanwhile, participants cast 540 votes in online surveys. Of these, 245 (45%) predict that gold will rise next week. Another 219 (41%) expect a decline. The remaining 76 respondents (14%) remained neutral on the precious metal’s near-term prospects. The latest survey shows that retail investors expect gold to trade around $1,872 next week. This figure is $64 below last week’s forecast. But it still represents a gain of $23 from the current spot price.
Everett Millman: Gold prices will rise in November
Gainesville Coins Chief Market Analyst Everett Millman largely attributes gold’s recent decline to seasonal factors. He also says it was due to expiring option contracts. However, he predicts that the precious metal will start the fourth quarter with a recovery. In this context, the analyst makes the following comment:
My initial reaction to this week’s decline was that it was related to options expiry on the Comex. This often leads to downward fluctuations as people close out or renew contracts. But given that this price action continues for the rest of the week, I’d chalk this up a bit to seasonality. The gold market usually goes into recession in late summer and early autumn. We saw the same situation last year… I expect gold prices to rise again at the beginning of November, if not at the beginning of October.
James Stanley: Continue to decline in October!
cryptokoin.comAs you follow from , gold prices saw a decrease of approximately 5% in September. James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, says gold will likely fall further in the first week of October. In this regard, Stanley makes the following statement:
The rates theme has been putting markets on edge, and gold’s behavior since the FOMC has been aggressively bearish, with both spot and futures clearing a number of supports along the way. There is no evidence that this is over yet.
Mark Leibovit: There is an uptrend next week
Mark Leibovit, publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter, thinks gold prices will rise next week as the dollar pulls back. “There will be an uptrend as the US dollar appears to be forming a top,” says Leibovit.
Darin Newsom: Medium and long-term trends are downward, but…
Barchart.com Senior Market Analyst Darin Newsom shares a technical view that gold will rise next week. According to Newsom, the long-term trend and medium-term trends remain downward. The analyst notes that the short-term daily chart for December gold shows that the contract is sharply oversold. Based on this, the analyst shares the following comment:
Daily stochastics formed a ‘bullish cross’ below 20% at Thursday’s close. This indicates that the short-term trend will turn upward. It is possible, perhaps unlikely, that the December futures contract will complete its 2-day rise on Friday. To do this, it must rise and close near the daily high. If this does not happen, the reversal of the bullish pattern will be slightly delayed.
Marc Chandler: There is upside potential for gold prices!
Bannockburn Global Forex General Manager Marc Chandler also sees upside potential for gold as the fourth quarter begins. Chandler expects gold to bottom out soon. According to the analyst, soft US core inflation is helping US interest rates stabilize. Therefore, the dollar’s pullback should help the yellow metal. Looking at the technical chart, Chandler draws attention to the following levels:
…I would be inclined to buy gold in case of further weakness. I would also expect a move to $1,885 to balance the technical tone and $1,892 to increase confidence that a low is in place.
Adam Button: Gold will first follow a downward, then upward trajectory
Forexlive.com Chief Currency Analyst Adam Button says bonds and the US dollar will determine the precious metal’s trajectory in the near term. But he sees a silver lining in the recent weakness in gold prices. In this context, the analyst makes the following assessment:
There is a great seasonal gold trade that starts in November. This sets it up nicely for a test of $1,800 and subsequent strengthening from November to January. Gold needs to see weakness in US economic data before a sustainable rise.
Button also notes that quarter-end factors are in play this week. He also says that gold is likely to make a jump early next week. The analyst said, “Today’s price movements are not very promising. But it’s not over yet. I don’t have great confidence that we will have a big leap forward. But I can say that I am neutral for next week.” says.
Jim Wyckoff: Technical data for gold prices is downward
Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff sees downside risks for the precious metal. Analyst: “Steady decline. Technical data is bearish. This means that the path of least resistance for gold prices is horizontal or downward.”
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