How big is the risk that the leading German index Dax will also end the following twelve months with a minus sign after a weak year on the stock market? Statistically speaking, the probability is extremely low. Such a situation has only happened twice in the entire history of the Dax. Strictly speaking, this is a single crisis that has been going down for three years in a row.
When the technology bubble burst at the turn of the millennium, losses increased year after year. It started in 2000 with a minus of 7.5 percent. The following year, the Dax lost 17.5 percent, and 2002 ended with a loss of more than 43 percent. It was the biggest minus in the entire history of the Dax and was even higher than the losses in the financial crisis year 2008. In all other years, a minus was followed by price gains.
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