What good are more sanctions against Iran?

Good morning dear readers,

Anyone looking for reasons to impose tougher sanctions on Iran these days has a free choice:

• The United States in particular suspects the regime in Tehran of continuing to work secretly on an Islamic nuclear bomb.
• The Europeans are particularly shocked by the brutal punishments for the demonstrators who protested against the oppression of women in Iran.
• If that’s not enough for you: According to Western knowledge, Iran is supplying Russia with combat drones, which Vladimir Putin’s troops use to terrorize the Ukrainian civilian population.

The crucial question, however, is: What will more sanctions against Iran actually achieve – and here the assessments differ widely. John Bolton, Donald Trump’s former security advisor, sees significant potential for tightening. “If you put more pressure on the ailing regime now, you can bring it down,” says the Republican, who is considering running for the US presidential election in 2024, in an interview with the Handelsblatt. “That, I think, should be the goal of the United States.”

Here’s what you need to know: Bolton enjoys a reputation as a notorious gun-wielder in American foreign policy. Even as a security advisor, he had unsuccessfully urged Trump to launch a major military strike against Iran.

“We must have no illusions: the effectiveness of sanctions is limited,” said Michel Duclos, former French ambassador and geopolitical adviser to the Institut Montaigne think tank. In the European Union, it would help if sanctions controls were carried out centrally by an EU authority instead of by the individual member states. But: “There will always be ways to circumvent sanctions.”

A look at the numbers shows that at least the EU oil embargo against Iran in 2012 initially had a major effect. Iran’s gross domestic product collapsed, inflation exploded – and the will to negotiate grew. But over time, according to think tank Atlantic Council, oil exports have largely recovered — in part because of thriving Iran’s oil trade with China.

If you’ve driven across several states during the holiday season, you may have wondered, like me, at the strange disparities in fuel prices. Premium petrol is now costing about the same as before the outbreak of the Ukraine war. For diesel, on the other hand, motorists still have to pay a surcharge of around 16.5 percent over the year. A study by the Cologne Institute of the German Economy (IW) says: “This clear difference between the two fuels can be explained by the fact that Europe’s refineries can meet the demand for super, but not for diesel.”

Before the attack on Ukraine, the diesel gap was mainly filled with imports from Russia, which have now disappeared.

However, diesel prices in Germany have also developed very differently from region to region. In November, diesel drivers refueled most cheaply in southern North Rhine-Westphalia, in parts of Rhineland-Palatinate and in Saarland. The highest prices were called at petrol pumps in southern Bavaria and in the southwest of the new federal states. This is because various oil pipelines lead into Germany, but they are often not connected to each other. As a result, regional shortages in oil imports and refinery capacities cannot easily be compensated for.

You probably already knew that. But I’m looking forward to being able to contribute something enlightening at the next neighborhood talk among long-suffering diesel drivers.

Let’s stay with driving for a moment. I have a very personal dream product: an electric car in which I program my destination and my desired arrival time, then fold down the reclining seat and sleep through the night until I get to my destination. In a pinch, it would even be enough for me if the whole thing only worked on the freeway.

Hello Wolfsburg, hello Stuttgart, hello Munich, there must be something to do?

Obviously not. 2022 was the year the industry had to bid farewell to high hopes for autonomous driving. Ford and Volkswagen have scrapped their Argo joint venture. Mercedes is already proud of a system that allows you to temporarily let go of the steering wheel, at least during stop-and-go.

And Google, Apple and Tesla also have problems with self-driving cars, as my automotive colleague Stefan Menzel analyzes in his editorial. His conclusion: “It is completely pointless to continue throwing billions out the window for autonomous driving, which will not earn a single euro in the foreseeable future.”

As far as technical feasibility is concerned, I’m not an expert. As far as sales potential goes, I have a different opinion. The first manufacturer to turn driving time into working time, free time or sleeping time has found the holy grail of the auto industry for me. Even if the search for this grail should take another ten years – those who give up now obviously have no desire for real entrepreneurship.
Dear car bosses, please try harder! A tired copywriter will thank you.

Investors in the US stock market seem to have lost hope of a year-end rally. The Dow Jones index fell 1.1 percent on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 1.2 percent to 3783.22 points. The Nasdaq 100 technology index also fell by 1.4 percent.

The reasoning of the stock market experts is interesting: In view of the rapidly increasing Covid infections in China, investors were concerned about a new global pandemic wave with possibly new variants. China recently abandoned the zero-Covid policy and decided to drastically relax the corona measures.
The USA reacted yesterday: From January 5th, travelers from China will have to show a negative corona test again.

And then there is climate fighter Greta Thunberg, who verbally sent US kickboxer Andrew Tate to the boards. Tate boasted about his sports car collection on Twitter and wrote to Thunberg: “Please give me your email address and I can send you a complete list of my cars and their huge emissions.” Thunberg, in turn, responded with a tweet: “Yes please enlighten me” followed by the email address [email protected]

Let’s not translate that now.

I wish you a day of great enlightenment.

Best regards

you

Christian Rickens

Editor-in-Chief Handelsblatt