Berlin The Ukraine war shows how critical the German infrastructure is. Before Easter, the federal government asked the transport industry for the first time about transport capacities if no more Russian oil should flow through the Druzhba pipeline to Germany in the future, as the Handelsblatt learned from government circles.
The result of the query was not very edifying: shipping in particular is able to deliver petrol, diesel and heating oil to compensate for possible failures at refineries in Schwedt and Leuna. However, the waterways in particular limit the transport volumes.
In government circles there was talk of four million tons with which Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Brandenburg and Berlin would have to be supplied. However, the waterways towards East Germany are not nearly as well developed to be able to transport such quantities without any problems, as was said in the industry.
Ships from Hamburg to Berlin can be no more than 86 meters long and can transport a maximum of 1,200 tons. Accordingly, 3333 shiploads are required for the announced four million tons. According to the Federal Association of German Inland Shipping, a trip takes just under a week.
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Routes from Rotterdam or the Ruhr area towards Magdeburg and Berlin are also possible, but not with large ships like on the Rhine, which is considered the best developed waterway in the country.
According to industry estimates, Deutsche Bahn has hardly any capacity to transport oil. On the one hand, a correspondingly large number of tank wagons are missing, but on the other hand there are also free and intact routes on the rail network. On top of that, the railway is already supposed to help maintain agricultural production in Ukraine by delivering equipment and bringing out the harvest. The results reinforce concerns that an oil embargo could cause major damage.
Industry demands rethinking on the rails
So far, many infrastructure projects, such as extending locks for larger ships or doubling and electrifying railway lines, have failed because of their profitability. As is currently the case in Bavaria, there are often delays in planning.
The traffic light coalition has decided to review all projects and readjust the cost-benefit ratio – but has so far justified this with the ambitious climate goals and not with increasing security of supply.
The waterways to East Germany are not developed well enough to transport a lot of oil quickly.
(Photo: Reuters)
The problems are particularly great on the rail network. There were already massive problems in 2021 and most recently at Easter: there were train cancellations, traffic jams, line closures due to storms or because of the countless, above all poorly coordinated, construction sites. There were no alternative routes. There were even production stops in the industry.
This Thursday, therefore, railway companies, shipping companies and industry are meeting with the management of the network operator DB Netz. For the second time, the Federal Ministry of Transport has invited to the crisis meeting. The group should find ways of modernizing and expanding the ailing network on the one hand and allowing traffic to flow on the other.
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) is calling for a radical change in mentality. The construction site management should be subjected to “a fundamental review”, according to a position paper by the association that is available to the Handelsblatt. “The efforts for customer-friendly and capacity-saving construction must be intensified.”
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The BDI calls for construction work to be limited in order to ensure at least half of the capacity on one section of the network. In principle, work should be carried out in the interest of the customer. Otherwise, business confidence in the rail system will continue to fall.
70 small and medium-sized measures with a big impact
The BDI notes that DB Netz has identified “70 small and medium-sized measures” to quickly relieve heavily used routes, for example with additional switches, second tracks or electrification. These are to be implemented quickly in order to create capacities with digital track-changing operations. The trains would have to be on time “at the level of more than 90 percent”. Depending on the corridor, it would currently be between 51 and 67 percent.
In addition to the problems on the network, there is also a lack of locomotives, engine drivers and the capacity of the railway’s service facilities, for example to put freight trains together. If trains still had to run on the network to transport mineral oil products, there would be renewed supply bottlenecks elsewhere.
As was said in the freight transport industry, many tank farms and refineries would have relied on barges in the past anyway. Rail connections and refueling systems are therefore “taken back to a low level of demand”.
Worry about the oil embargo
At the beginning of the week, Brandenburg’s Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD) warned of the far-reaching consequences of an oil embargo. “We have to assume that a delivery stop would have an immediate impact on every single household in Germany,” he said.
The Federal Ministry of Economics had previously stated in a paper that an embargo would “lead to market distortions and bottlenecks in the supply of petroleum products at least temporarily in eastern and central Germany”.
Meanwhile, Minister Robert Habeck has declared that the share of Russian oil is only around twelve percent. “Today I can say that an embargo has become manageable for Germany,” said the Green politician after a meeting with his Polish colleague Anna Moskwa on Tuesday in Warsaw. A solution still had to be found for the PCK refinery in Schwedt an der Oder. Here we are looking for an alternative.
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In Schwedt, Brandenburg, Russian oil is processed into petrol, diesel and kerosene. The refinery, majority owned by the Russian oil company Rosneft, covers 95 percent of the market in large parts of eastern Germany. BER Airport also gets its kerosene from there.
It is still unclear whether Habeck will be able to quickly find an alternative. The Fuels and Energy trade association has doubts. All mineral oil companies are working on emergency plans – in close cooperation with the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
It is important that the two refineries Leuna and Schwedt “can continue to be operated at least in part-load operation”, as a spokesman explained. “Nevertheless, there will be a lack of products in eastern Germany, which will have to be compensated for by deliveries from other regions of Germany or by product imports.”
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