Bitcoin price is trading above two important levels. According to crypto analyst Akash Girimath, this indicates a stable foothold. Combining this outlook with a bullish divergence signal, the analyst says BTC holders can expect a positive outcome. However, as the third quarter will end in a few hours, it is possible that there is abnormal volatility in the market that could trigger big moves in either direction. Therefore, it warns investors to be careful. We have prepared Akash Girimath’s weekly Bitcoin forecast and analysis for our readers.
Bitcoin price and the start of a new quarter
cryptocoin.comAs you follow, Bitcoin continues its struggle. Accordingly, it formed a hard bottom at $19,230 on June 30. This was followed by an increase of 31%. With this move, it rose to $ 25,205. After that, the movement’s momentum wore off, coupled with investors booking profits. Thus, the markets turned, resulting in a 27% collapse that created another low at $18,210 on Sept. 19.
These lower lows signal a bearish outlook. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising as the price is falling. This indicates a bullish divergence. Also, this technical formation reveals that there is no selling pressure. So, it will likely be a sign that the market will reverse and start to rise.
As sellers lose strength, Bitcoin price will reflect what is currently seen in momentum. This too is a bull resurgence triggering a bullish run. The resulting move is likely to push BTC up 20% before it encounters the top hurdle, the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). If the momentum is strong enough to reverse this blockade, it is possible for Bitcoin to reach the next level of resistance at $29,563. This move represents a 48% gain from the current position. This is where the upside cap is likely for the leading crypto.
Bitcoin forecast on quarterly chart
The three-day chart for the Bitcoin forecast is showing signs of bullishness. However, the quarterly chart is less bullish. Instead, it raises two major hurdles:
- It is a resistance area between $27,734 and $29,296.
- A support block from $13,880 to $19,666.
From a macro perspective, the support block has been extremely helpful in assisting buyers and absorbing the incoming selling pressure. Therefore, the possibility of a bounce from the current position to $29,296 makes sense. It is also consistent with the narrative detailed above.
Also, a return of the resistance area could allow Bitcoin price to increase its gains from 48% to 68% as it retests the Fair Value Gap (FVG) i.e. imbalance at $32,950.
The fact that today is the last day of the third quarter of 2022 adds credibility to the bullish outlook. However, there is likely to be massive volatility that could push Bitcoin in either direction. I would also recommend staying away from trading until the quarterly close. Traders also need to consider the possibility of a market manipulation that pushes the Bitcoin price to sweep the June low at $17,593.
On the other hand, if sellers take control and force Bitcoin to produce a three-day candlestick below the September 19 low of $18,210, it will invalidate the bullish divergence and thesis outlined above. In such a case, market participants need to consider the possibility of digging deeper into the support box between $13,880 and $19,666. This move is likely to bring Bitcoin price down to retest the intermediate support at $15,550.
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