Bitcoin prediction by analyst Jonathan Morgan cryptocoin.comis under scrutiny. According to the estimation, the Federal Reserve cannot block BTC’s uptrend. Bitcoin price action is subject to risk aversion sentiment as more professional money is invested in Bitcoin. Bitcoin remains strong as an asset, still the best performing financial instrument of the past 11 years. Bear markets are difficult to measure in cryptocurrencies, but standard metrics used in other markets do not apply.
What does the Bitcoin forecast include?
Bitcoin price has suffered some significant losses over the past few weeks, with a more dramatic drop this week after the announcement of the Federal Reserve’s decision. As losses increased and Bitcoin entered the $30,000 region, Bitcoin’s prediction of being in a bear market increased. If the same indicators were used in the cryptocurrency market to measure a bear market in the stock market, bear markets would occur almost every two weeks. Any drop of 20% or more from its all-time high is considered a bear market for equity markets. A 20% drop for Bitcoin is not even a normal pullback; this is a normal range of oscillations. A look at the last three bear markets shows the results below in terms of time and price. 17 June 2011 – 25 May 2012: With a length of 350 days, the maximum loss was 93.8%. 29 November 2013 – 1 May 2015: 462 days long, maximum loss was 92.6%. 22 December 2017 – 1 March 2019: 427 days long, maximum loss was 84%.
Compare the three main bear markets with corrections that Bitcoin faces in an uptrend: While the average retracement Bitcoin can experience can range from 30-40%, sudden crashes and occasional short, sharp corrective moves above 50% occur. So how does a bear market measure up in cryptocurrencies when pullbacks are so sharp and volatile? The answer is time and emotion. On-chain metrics show many reasons to suggest that Bitcoin is in a bear market or could start soon. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s oscillators on the weekly chart certainly help confirm the negative sentiment.
The Optex Bands oscillator is currently in severely oversold territory; a situation that has occurred only three times, the first in October 2018 and again in July 2021. It is worth noting that the lower Optex Bands of July 2021 preceded the rally from $31,000 to around $69,000. The Composite Index is trading at the same level as December 2018 – January 2019 lows, September 2015 lows and June – July 2021 lows. The Relative Strength Index has moved to lows not seen since the lows of the COVID-19 crash in March 2020 and January-February 2019.
Is Bitcoin in a bear market?
From the perspective of price action, negative sentiment can also be measured. Bitcoin has dropped below the Ichimoku Cloud and is threatening to fall below the weekly Cloud for the first time since the Covid crash in March 2020. A Spike Pattern is any column of fifteen or more Xs or Os. Spike Patterns are the definition of extreme and exaggerated price action. This means that Bitcoin is moving lower $34,000 without a single reversal column appearing on this Point and Figure chart – a staggering bearish success and a feat for the history books.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin is not in a bear market yet. With Bitcoin’s on-chain, fundamental and technical analysis metrics pointing to the extremes, which way will Bitcoin move? Much will depend on how Bitcoin price closes the weekly candlestick. If it closes below the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, there is a flash collapse towards the $25,000 value area. However, a bullish reversal is highly likely due to how oversold and expanded the market has already been. If an upcoming rally takes place, it will be a critical test of whether Bitcoin is in a bear market. The reversal to test $48,000 to $50,000 shows early signs of improvement. If the bulls fail to sustain a move above the $48,000-$50,000 price range in the near future, the market will certainly be ready for a real and extended bear market.
If Bitcoin has a weekly candlestick near the bottom of the weekly Cloud, the probability of testing $48,000 – $50,000 becomes increasingly complex. Because all-time lows put pressure on Bitcoin’s oscillators, creating a kind of “price discovery”. But in the meantime, it’s unlikely that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell or Chairman Biden will put a meaningful dent on Bitcoin’s broader uptrend and growth.
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