Viktor Orban wins election in Hungary

Even if the final result is still pending, it is clear that the opposition’s ambition for a change of power has failed miserably. Instead of the clear majority that she would have needed for this, she received only 34.9 percent after counting almost all votes. The governing party Fidesz, on the other hand, achieved 53.3 percent – ​​and thus probably an absolute majority for the first time since 2010. She can probably even defend her two-thirds majority in Parliament. In addition, the right-wing extremist movement “Unsere Heimat” moves into the National Council.

The cold Budapest night went well with the mood of the opposition. Next to the ice rink in the town park, where she had hoped for a victory celebration, there was fresh snow between the half-empty benches. After the announcement that the event would be canceled completely, the top candidate of Allianz for Hungary, Peter Marki-Zay, did appear in front of a scattered audience before midnight. He said he was shocked at the “brainwashing” that had led to the victory of the governing Fidesz party. There was no self-criticism.

The fact that Peter Marki-Zay was clearly inferior in his own constituency remained a side note that was as bitter as it was significant for him: The surprise winner of the opposition primary could not even convince the voters in his hometown of Hodmezövasarhely, let alone the majority of Hungarians. She hardly won a seat outside the big cities, which also dashed hopes that the provincial believing Catholic Marki-Zay could open up new groups of voters for her.

The heterogeneous alliance of six opposition parties, representing positions from far left to far right, was simply unconvincing. Their experiment in overcoming the high hurdles in electoral law set up by Orban’s overwhelming government majority through an alliance of convenience did not lead to the hoped-for mobilization.

Opposition did not create change mood in Hungary

The opponents of Orban managed to maintain their unity until election day. But the weeks of discussions about a joint program and the poorly concealed irritation about the erratic top candidate were not enough to create a mood of change.

The result was a relatively narrow victory even in the stronghold of Budapest. Orban, on the other hand, the adept populist with a keen sense of popular sentiment, brought his voters to the polls, especially in the countryside: Fidesz benefited disproportionately from a turnout that was at least as high as 2018 and possibly a new record achieved.

The observer mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation once again criticized the fact that the political playing field was extremely uneven: the dominant pro-government media carried out election propaganda, while Fidesz and its affiliated non-governmental organizations had many times the resources of the opposition at their disposal.

Orban smiled from most of the posters in public spaces, which portrayed the opposition as a danger to the nation. Added to this was an electoral law tailored to the governing party – and to the winner. With its majority of votes, Fidesz is expected to win 135 of the 199 seats in parliament.

Orban polarized with protection against “gender ideology”

During the election campaign, Orban never left a shadow of a doubt that as the father of the country he hovers far above the other actors. He only responded indirectly to the arguments of the opposition, ignoring his opponent Peter Marki-Zay and thus denying him the national stage. Orban also linked the general election to a vote on a law that purports to protect children from sexual minority “propaganda” and “gender ideology”. With this he mobilized additionally.

The 58-year-old also skilfully used the concerns of Hungarians about the war in Ukraine. The Prime Minister used the opposition’s criticism of Orban’s loyalty to the warlord Vladimir Putin to counterattack: He accused his opponents of wanting to draw the country into the conflict, while he was the only guarantor of peace.

The total dependence on Russian gas that he has promoted over the past decade has been reframed as an argument for re-election, a less submissive attitude towards Moscow at risk to national security and the country’s energy supply.

Orban accepts the damage that this attitude causes even in relation to Poland, whose national-conservative government is Hungary’s most important ally in the EU. His party is convinced that the tensions will remain temporary – soon covered up again by the joint defense of state sovereignty against “Brussels” and the dispute over the rule of law.

Is Orban making a U-turn on the Russia issue?

In view of the brutal actions of the Russians in Bucha, Mariupol and Kharkiv and the associated demands in the West for tougher sanctions in the energy sector, it is uncertain whether this calculation will work. Quite a few observers therefore expect Orban to turn his back on NATO and its western allies with the election victory behind him.

However, the fact that he named Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his victory speech in a row with international “opponents” such as Brussels and the philanthropist George Soros does not point in the direction of reconciliation, at least rhetorically.

In Hungary itself, with the support of an absolute majority of voters, he will be able to rule with even less disruption in the future. The opposition, on the other hand, is faced with an absolute shambles, and the alliance of convenience is threatened with self-mutilation. She will have little to oppose Fidesz’s striving for power.

More: Sex scandal, gangs, media oppression: The election will be a shaky game for Orban