Tokyo It was his sharpest warning to China to date: during a visit to Japan, US President Joe Biden promised Taiwan support in the event of an attack by China. During a press conference with Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday, when asked by a journalist whether the US would provide military assistance in such a case, Biden replied: “Yes, we have that obligation.”
Political observers see this as a nightmare scenario. Should there be a war over Taiwan, the superpower USA and the nuclear power China would face each other.
Biden did not stop with this urgent warning to Beijing. Shortly thereafter, he presented his actual declaration of war, with which he intends to counter China’s growing economic influence in the region. With an economic initiative for the Indo-Pacific, the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” (IPEF), the US President wants to counteract China’s supremacy in Asia.
“We’re here for one simple reason,” Biden said to leaders from 12 countries in the region, most of whom tuned in online. “The future of the economy of the 21st century will largely be written in the Indo-Pacific region.” And the participants would now help shape the rules for the new economy.
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As a goal, Biden defined an Indo-Pacific region “that is free, safe and resilient”. For example, Washington is concerned with developing common rules for the digital economy, developing resilient supply chains for important components such as semiconductors and promoting investments in clean energies.
It’s about these points:
- Develop common rules for the digital economy,
- develop resilient supply chains for critical components such as semiconductors,
- Promote investment in clean energy and decarbonization of the economy,
- curb corruption, among other things, through fair rules.
Biden’s security advisor clearly described the claim “that we want to be at the center of the network”. The basic economic data is impressive to read: the participants represent 40 percent of world trade, including economically strong nations such as Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
At the meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister in Tokyo, US President Biden is also promoting a new trade model.
(Photo: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire)
But the situation is more complex than the diplomatic phrases surrounding the American guest of state would suggest. Not even the most important US ally, Japan, is unreservedly jubilant about the initiative. Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida, in the presence of Biden, expressly welcomed the USA’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
In an interview with the business newspaper “Nikkei”, however, he spoke from the heart of other governments: Japan would still prefer the USA to return to the Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPP).
The agreement was originally initiated by the United States in order to reduce China’s economic influence in Southeast Asia through freer access to the US market. After the United States left under Donald Trump, Japan and Australia then saved the remainder of the agreement, which is now in force as the CPTPP. But Biden, who once helped shape the TPP agreement as Vice President Barack Obama, is now undeterred in his role as President of Trump’s US-centric course.
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The problem: Without legally secured free access to the US market, many governments in the region lack the economic incentive to fully commit to binding rules on trade, labor and environmental law. In addition, IPEF’s advantage of not requiring parliamentary approval can also turn into a disadvantage. A new US President could remove it with one signature. This is more difficult with a free trade agreement.
However, Japan’s support for the current American push reflects the region’s central dichotomy. The IPEF is accepted as plan B. His government will continue to press the US to return to the TPP, but at the same time promote cooperation within the framework of the IPEF, Kishida explained in the “Nikkei” interview.
On the one hand, the federal states want to try to influence the new set of rules. On the other hand, they hope that the US will at least partially fill the economic vacuum in the region that Trump left behind.
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They clearly formulate the wish not to enter into one-sided dependencies. As Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Long put it: “It is important that IPEF remains open and flexible – and that allows members to work with many other partners in overlapping collaborations.”
Finally, he bluntly asked the US to get over its aversion to free trade agreements. He hopes that IPEF “over time will lead to an even more ambitious economic engagement between the United States and the region.”
On Tuesday, the last day of his Asia trip, Biden wants to attend a summit meeting with the heads of government from Japan, India and Australia in Tokyo. At the so-called Quad Summit, the focus should be on striving for a free and open Indo-Pacific.
On the sidelines of the summit, Biden also wants to meet bilaterally with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the new Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
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