Washington When Joe Biden landed on the South Meadow of the White House on Wednesday night, he didn’t feel like talking. He had had a strenuous week at the summit in Europe, a transatlantic flight and a transfer with the presidential helicopter Marine Force One.
Biden’s party had actually started the first mood test after the 2020 presidential election full of hope, but now it has experienced a political disaster. In the gubernatorial elections in Virginia, the Republican Glenn Youngkin won the highest office in the state, he won against the Democrat Terry McAuliffe.
And the race for governor in New Jersey, another state believed to be safe for the Democrats, surprisingly turned into a tremendous game. Only a few votes separate the Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli from the Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy, former US ambassador to Germany.
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Republicans mobilize, Democrats are tired
The elections have nationwide consequences, because the votes are regarded as harbingers of the important midterm elections in autumn 2022, the so-called midterms. Then the Republicans want to win back the majority in the US Congress. And as they have now proven, they have a good chance that they can succeed – even without Donald Trump on the ballot paper.
In both states, the Republicans brought an above-average number of supporters to the polls, and not only in the countryside and in conservative strongholds. Even in coveted suburbs, which have become more and more democratic in recent years, they have seen growth, particularly among women. “The turnout was enormous, the suburbs are tending back in the direction before Trump,” said the democratic strategist Jared Leopold of the Washington Post.
The elections also showed an open flank of the Democrats: In addition to a lack of enthusiasm, the party has a problem in permanently retaining working-class voters. The US president had brought the interests of the working and middle classes into focus. But so far he has not had any concrete results. For months, his Democrats on Capitol Hill have been struggling to invest billions in infrastructure, climate protection and social programs. On Tuesday, a vote on Biden’s reforms was postponed for the third time in a row.
“There was no longer any reason for many supporters to vote for the Democrats,” said pollster Josh Ulibarri. “It’s definitely a wake-up call,” said grassroots activist Quentin James. “I think we underestimate our opponents and their ability to power the base.”
Biden was quickly burned in office
The election results support this theory. An estimated 3.3 million people voted in Virginia. The analysis portal Five Thirty Eight wrote of a “walk through” by the Republicans. “The vote is a perfect example that a high turnout does not necessarily mean a victory for the Democrats.”
The US Republicans also benefited from Biden’s weakness in office. Its approval ratings have dropped to around 43 percent, only Trump was less popular at this point in office. The reasons for this are varied: The Covid infections are not under control, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal cast doubt on Biden’s judgment. Supply chain problems and inflation are making themselves felt in people’s wallets.
Many Democrats are apparently expecting Biden to only stay in the Oval Office for one term – a scenario that the President himself has not ruled out. According to a poll by the news channel NPR, only a third of Democrats want to see Biden again in the White House race in 2024.
The consequences for the trillion tussle on Capitol Hill are unclear. A wing dispute between the centrists and the left blocks Biden’s reforms and tensions could be reignited. “When things go bad, people start thinking of themselves,” strategist David Axelrod said on CNN.
Cultural struggles at the center of the election campaign
Moderate Democrats may feel vindicated that the party has slipped too far to the left. The left wing, on the other hand, believes exactly the opposite. Activist groups who had supported Biden in the election campaign against Trump pushed for sharper positions on election night. Virginia was “doomed” because the Democrats were too tame.
In fact, social culture struggles over mask mandates, school closings, abortion and racism played a major role, at least in Virginia. Youngkin geared his campaign fully to the subject of education, actually a democratic supreme discipline.
In the Virginia gubernatorial election, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the highest office in the state.
(Photo: dpa)
At the heart of the election campaign were debates about the state of public schools, which remained closed during the pandemic. There was also controversy over the way schools treat racism and ethnic identity in their curricula. The Democrat Terry McAuliffe warned of Donald Trump’s political legacy, but the image of the enemy evidently no longer drew as strongly as in the presidential elections.
Another leitmotif holds lessons for both parties. The newcomer versus establishment principle worked brilliantly in Virginia. McAuliffe, for example, is a fixture in the Democratic Party and a close friend of the Clintons, having held the governorship in Virginia before. The multimillionaire Youngkin is a career changer from the private sector and a major Republican donor.
Youngkin was supported by Trump in the election campaign, but he kept the ex-president at a distance. This balancing act could strategically influence the Republicans. The party has radicalized rapidly and must strive to remain a majority. Youngkin’s “both-and” motto could now become a blueprint for Republicans across the country.
More: So the Republicans were able to conquer the blue state of Virginia