The great success of the Republicans did not materialize. But for the US President, the leeway is likely to become smaller.
(Photo: AP)
After the midterm elections is before the presidential elections. That is the most important lesson that remains after a memorable election day in the US – even if the result is not yet known. Because these midterms provide all the prerequisites for pronounced power struggles in the next two years, within the two major parties and between them.
On the one hand, there is the probable blockade in Parliament: The Democrats, even if they did much better than forecast in these midterm elections, are likely to lose the majority in the House of Representatives to the Republicans. Even a razor-thin Republican majority is enough to make life difficult for the Democrats.
US President Joe Biden can hardly get anything through the House of Representatives. Among other things, this also applies to the financial aid from the USA in the Ukraine war, which Republican MPs such as spokesman Kevin McCarthy have already questioned. Not to mention crippling eventual impeachment motions against Biden by a Republican majority. This would not change if the Senate majority remained with the Democrats – which we may only know after a runoff in Georgia.
Strong governors become challengers
On the other hand, it is precisely the close outcome of the midterm elections that will put the country’s politics directly back into campaign mode. Ex-President Donald Trump is expected to announce his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election next Tuesday.
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The midterm elections show that Trump got many of his candidates through the internal party primaries. But many of them are unable to organize majorities against the democratic opponents. Nevertheless, Trump should concentrate on his successful protégés – and announce his candidacy.
>> Read here: Biden’s Democrats are slowing down the Republicans – Trump’s candidates are weakening
Because there are considerable successes of some governors at state level. And that will also lead to intra-party power struggles. Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis, who is likely to announce his claims to a presidential candidacy after a clear victory.
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But Texas Gov. Greg Abbott also prevailed in the fight against top-flight Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. And Texas Senator Ted Cruz hasn’t closed the presidency issue any more than former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The former UN ambassador Nikki Haley is being traded as a promising female candidate. The Grand Old Party is facing a dispute over direction between Trumpists and more moderate conservatives.
In the case of the Democrats, on the other hand, Joe Biden is entering the debate stronger after his party’s surprisingly strong performance. The question arises as to whether, at the age of 79, he is not too old and too weak to be a candidate in the 2024 election campaign. But here, too, the clear electoral success of Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan shows that there are alternatives.
>> Read here: Ron DeSantis, Winner of Election Night – Who is the politician Trump fears?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was able to score from the party left. Other contenders are Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris. The discussions will be from now on, more and more intense.
The blockade and the rapid transition to the primary campaign for the 2024 presidential election do not bode well for Europe. The ability of the transatlantic partner to act is fundamental, especially in times of the Ukraine war. In addition, the early pre-election campaign will make US policy even more geared towards national interests and make it more protectionist.
The resentment of the Europeans and Japanese over the competition-distorting subsidies in Biden’s anti-inflation law is probably just the first act.
More: All developments regarding the midterms in the news blog