Düsseldorf, Munich The success report of a research team from China that they had developed the fastest quantum computer in the world with 66 qubits lasted just under three weeks. On Tuesday, the US corporation IBM announced a processor called the Eagle with 127 qubits.
In contrast to the bits of conventional computers, qubits, or quantum bits, can not only assume the states “one” and “zero”, but theoretically an infinite number of states in between. Each additional qubit doubles the number of states that can be displayed at the same time, so the number is considered a performance feature. But while IBM speaks of a breakthrough, experts warn against too great expectations.
Researchers and developers around the world are working flat out on the technology. Although research is still at the basic stage and it is not clear whether it will ever be suitable for commercial use, a hype about quantum computers has developed. States and companies invest billions in research – out of concern that they will be left behind when it comes to the important future technology.
Quantum informatics is regarded as the basis for innovations, as crucial for the medium and long-term competitiveness of companies and economies. Researchers are hoping for breakthroughs in medicine, chemistry and artificial intelligence, for example.
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Always new success reports easily hide how far the world is from the next quantum leap. This also applies to the news from IBM: “The introduction of the ‘Eagle’ processor is an important step on the way to the day when quantum computers can significantly outperform classical computers,” said IBM research director Darío Gil. There is the potential to “change almost every sector and help us address the greatest problems of our time”.
There is still a long way to go, however. The announcement of a 127-qubit quantum computer is “technologically impressive, but not a breakthrough,” says Dominik Wild from the Max Planck Institute for Quantum Optics in Munich. It is a “world record for how many qubits are controlled”, which is interesting for research, but he is not aware of any commercial use.
Global competition in quantum computers
The “number of qubits alone does not provide any information about the performance”, Gunnar Langfahl from the research association Quantum Valley Lower Saxony (QVLS) in Hanover points out. It is crucial that these interact as error-free as possible and that they can be controlled in a targeted manner, i.e. that they are programmable.
“If the error rate is too high, the largest quantum computer does not produce any meaningful results,” emphasizes the quantum physicist. In the case of a bicycle, it is not just the number of gears that determines how fast it can go.
Langfahl is currently observing a veritable “test of strength in quantum computers”. IBM announced a model with 1100 qubits by 2023. For certain tasks, it should be better or more cost-efficient than classic IT systems and enable the first industrial applications. Google plans to develop a quantum computer with one million qubits by the end of the decade. According to the current state of knowledge, this number is necessary to build a quantum computer for a broader application.
While in the USA it is primarily private companies such as IBM, Google and Amazon that drive quantum research with large teams, China relies on state-funded research institutions such as the Chinese University of Science and Technology in Hefei (USTC). At the end of August, their research teams presented two different quantum computers based on different technologies, thus proving that they are among the world’s best in research.
China has so far announced more than $ 15 billion in public investments in quantum technologies, according to an analysis by management consultancy McKinsey. That is more than twice as much as the European Union. In the US, public investment amounts to just $ 1.3 billion. The research there is funded by private companies.
Key role for technological and digital sovereignty
“The rest of the world does not sleep in this area,” stated Chancellor Angela Merkel in the summer. Quantum computers played a key role in the endeavors for “technological and digital sovereignty” and thus also for growth and employment, the physicist emphasized at the time. The federal government has pledged two billion euros in investments for quantum technology as part of the Corona economic stimulus package.
The Federal Ministry of Research is now spending a good 40 million euros on an IQM quantum computer with 20 qubits. This is to be integrated into a high-performance computer in the Leibniz computing center by 2023. It relies on a consortium around the European start-up IQM based in Munich and Espoo in Finland.
At the official start of the project on Monday, IQM CEO Jan Goetz said: “The number of qubits is not the most important thing, but the way in which they are used.” The integration into a data center is intended to ensure that the Quantum computers will be put into continuous operation and companies can be involved in the further development and tests of initial use cases.
IBM also relies on cooperation with research institutions and companies when developing specific applications. Partners can access a system in Ehningen near Stuttgart via the cloud. The hope: As soon as the new computer architecture is suitable for widespread use, the economy should be ready for it – and use IBM’s technology.
Quantum expert Wild knows a few such projects in which companies should research useful areas of application for quantum technology. However, this computing power is not yet sufficient for actual, commercial use. A comparatively small molecule for chemical applications can be simulated with a 20 qubit processor. However, the computing power is too low for use in the pharmaceutical industry, which works with large molecules.
Researchers are dampening expectations
But even if commercially usable quantum computers could be built, these would be “not magic”, but only suitable for solving very specific problems, says expert Wild, dampening expectations. One example is prime factorization, on which encryption techniques are based. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could crack many common encryption systems – but it could also create unhackable systems.
Nobody is currently able to predict when and whether the use of quantum computers will be profitable. “When physicists say five to ten years from now, they don’t know,” jokes Wild. Otherwise they would promise a solution “in two to three years”.
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