Riga The Ukrainian counter-offensive to liberate more Russian-held areas in the east of the country is taking shape. On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said counterattacks against Russian troops at the front were underway.
“Counter-offensive, defensive actions” are taking place in Ukraine, Zelensky said during a visit by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Kiev. “I’m not going to talk about what stage or phase they are in,” he added. So he left it open whether this was actually the beginning of the long-awaited large-scale counter-offensive.
He is in daily contact with the commanders at different locations. Everyone was positive. “Pass that on to Putin,” Zelenskiy said. The President announced on Friday that he was in contact with the Ukrainian units in “all the hottest areas” and praised them for the “results” of their efforts, which he did not explain in detail.
Western experts also see signs of the counter-offensive. According to military analysts, Ukrainian forces conducted operations in at least four areas of the frontline on Saturday. The Ukrainian military itself also reported “heavy fighting” with Russian soldiers.
According to experts from the US Institute for War Research (ISW), Ukrainian troops have already achieved local successes in the Zaporizhia region in the south of the country. The gains are in the west of the Zaporizhia region and there in the south-west and south-east of the city of Orikhiv, the ISW said.
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According to British assessments, too, the Ukrainian armed forces have made some progress in the fighting in the south and east of the country. In some areas they may have made good headway, overcoming the first Russian line of defense, the British Ministry of Defense said. In other areas, however, the advance was slower.
Losses “inevitable in any military endeavor”
The ISW also reports that Ukraine lost some military vehicles provided by the West on Thursday. However, such losses are “inevitable in any military endeavor”. The Ukrainian armed forces would suffer losses in offensive operations, including “both Western and Soviet equipment,” the analysts said.
The British Ministry of Defense has said there were some credible defense operations on the Russian side. Other units, however, would have withdrawn in disorder. Reports of casualties among the Russian troops when retreating through their own minefields increased. The Russian military, on the other hand, announced that it had successfully repelled the attacks in Zaporizhia and in Donetsk around the town of Bakhmut.
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Various Western military experts have suspected for a while that this offensive is underway, but the Ukrainian leadership has not yet officially confirmed this. For months, Ukrainian commanders in the heavily contested city of Bakhmut have been formulating counter-offensive and defensive operations.
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Russia, on the other hand, has been saying since the beginning of the week that the offensive has begun and has so far failed. This was recently said by President Vladimir Putin.
However, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar noted that there would be no communications until there was clarity on the battlefield.
Expert: Dam destruction will not prevent counter-offensive
The destruction of the Kakhovka dam in the Kherson Oblast and the resulting flooding had led to debates last week about the impact on the announced counter-offensive. Military analyst Niklas Masuhr, who researches at ETH Zurich, believes that the destruction of the dam will have little immediate impact on the military course of the war.
“It is rather unlikely that Ukraine planned to cross the Dnieper as an important offensive axis,” he told the German Press Agency. Instead, the focal points of the announced counter-offensives from the north are assumed to be in Zaporizhia and in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Experts do not see the destruction of the Kakhovka dam as part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
(Photo: AP)
Both sides blame each other for the destruction of the dam, but the dam is in territory controlled by Russian occupying forces.
On Friday, Ukraine’s internal intelligence service said it had recorded a phone conversation proving Russia’s responsibility for the dam demolition. The information cannot be independently verified at this time.
Western partners have high expectations of the Ukrainian counter-offensive
After the Ukrainian armed forces were able to liberate large previously occupied areas, including the city of Cherson, in late summer and autumn last year, the country’s international partners have high expectations of the counteroffensive.
In recent months, however, high-ranking members of the government have repeatedly warned against over-optimistic hopes. After Ukraine received billions in military aid from the West, the success or failure of the counter-offensive is considered a factor in deciding on further aid.
With agency material
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