The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has been in a new phase for several weeks. After the rapid advance against Kyiv failed, an intense war of attrition has now developed in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Putin is still banking on winning this illegal war militarily. The sanctions are having an effect, but this war will not be decided on an economic level, but on a military level.
That is why we Europeans must act decisively now and enable Ukraine to defend itself. The decisive factor for military success is the availability of material, especially large equipment such as tanks and artillery.
Here, Ukraine is initially at a disadvantage compared to Russia. Production facilities in the country were destroyed by Russian airstrikes, and the acts of war have also disrupted supply chains within Ukraine.
At the same time, a central element of our previous approach of making old Soviet-made equipment available to Ukraine will reach its limits. The depot stocks in the former Eastern Bloc countries are finite and are not replenished.
The deliveries of individual Western European stocks, such as the Gepard tank, do not yet represent a paradigm shift towards a longer-term solution to the Ukrainian procurement problem.
The considerable wear and tear in a war of attrition makes it necessary for Ukraine’s European partners to rethink.
During World War II, the United States faced a similar problem. Great Britain (and later also the Soviet Union) could not compete with the armament capacities of Nazi Germany.
The solution was a so-called Lend-Lease Act of 1941. This authorized the American president to supply unlimited supplies such as weapons, ammunition, fuel and food on credit or on lease.
The law was passed in February 1941 at a time when the US was not a party to the war. Its effect on the course of the war should hardly be underestimated.
Former Soviet President Khrushchev suggested in his memoirs that without this material support for the Allies, World War II would have been lost.
Joint EU supplies are more effective than individual nations
In early May, US President Joe Biden signed a new Lend-Lease Act in support of Ukraine. This authorizes the American President to deliver military goods to Ukraine for the next two fiscal years without individual authorization.
In the USA, the law primarily ensures that existing administrative hurdles and financing problems are overcome.
It is to be expected that the American side will be able to mobilize considerable resources for the Ukraine and that the current deficit of the Europeans in support services will continue to grow in comparison.
In the European Union we are faced with a crucial decision: Should the EU member states continue to take responsibility for the financing, procurement and export of such goods themselves, or should we pursue a common European approach?
A country-by-country approach may result in delivery based on local availability rather than Ukrainian needs. This is how deliveries become piecemeal.
The speed of exports is also constantly dependent on the approval processes and the political will in the member states. The example of the Gepard tanks in Germany is currently showing how time-consuming these processes can be.
A common European approach, on the other hand, promises to be more effective. The most effective way to do this is a European Lend-Lease law that creates carte blanche in defense technology.
The EU should pre-finance European defense technology for Ukraine
This can remedy two core problems of the previous procurement practice: the export license and the financing.
On the one hand, a European Lend-Lease law for Ukraine should temporarily suspend the existing national and European export controls. This would allow the Ukrainian army to order directly from European manufacturers and import them as soon as possible.
Approval procedures and the associated political uncertainty were eliminated. As soon as supplies are produced, they can be delivered to Ukraine.
On the other hand, the EU should pre-finance the purchase or lease of European defense technology for Ukraine in view of the country’s precarious budgetary situation. The European Peace Facility could serve as a credit line for this.
Instead of relying on the situational allocation of funds, funding for Ukraine’s defense would be permanently guaranteed. However, the influence of the Europeans on the whereabouts of the weapons after the end of the war and on the peace order in the Ukraine as a whole would remain secured via the loan financing.
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In the European treaties, both the Union’s competence in trade policy and the common security policy can be considered as the legal basis for the law.
A positive side effect would also be capacity building in the European defense technology industry in those branches of arms that have proven to be effective in the conflict with Russia and are therefore in demand by Ukraine.
The Europeanization of military procurement is an important contribution to building a European defense union. The special fund of 100 billion euros announced for the Bundeswehr can also be used much more effectively in the European network.
The same applies to the planned spending increases in many military budgets in the EU. If we don’t get away from parochial thinking, we Europeans will make ourselves weaker than we are together.
A European lend-lease law would be a temporary and spatially limited tool to safeguard the security interests of Europeans in their immediate vicinity.
The EU must clearly show that it stands up for the European peace order
Concerns about the conflict spreading to the territory of the EU and NATO alliance are understandable, but not expedient.
The behavior of the Kremlin in recent weeks has shown that Russia does not need reasons for military escalation steps, but creates them itself – where necessary under false pretenses.
Especially with a view to the tensions in the Republic of Moldova, it is necessary to send a clear signal that the EU is prepared to stand up for the European peace order with its geo-economic weight.
It is not clear why joint European action on the issue of arms deliveries should lead to a greater escalation than the exchange of rings or other deliveries from the stocks of individual member states – on the contrary.
The war in Ukraine is a historic moment for Europe to become a serious geopolitical player. A Lend-Lease Act is an essential building block for this.
The EU can and must fill the gap left by hesitancy in some national capitals.
The European Commission and the European Parliament are therefore called upon to act quickly and introduce a Lend-Lease Act.
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