If Trump survives the primary campaign unscathed, he could become Biden’s challenger.
(Photo: AP)
Washington Most Americans no longer want to hear, see or read from these two men: former US President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden. In polls, only a minority of US citizens want a repeat of the Biden versus Trump constellation seen in the 2020 presidential election. Back then, Biden challenged then-President Trump and won.
Nevertheless, there could be a repeat in the elections next year. Because Trump still has a good chance of being nominated as the Republican presidential candidate again – despite a federal indictment in the secret documents affair, for which he had to appear in court on Tuesday.
If Trump survives the primary campaign unscathed, he could become Biden’s challenger. Something like this is probably only possible in the US electoral law, which has very few built-in barriers. That’s why a demagogue who denies Biden’s 2020 election victory, calls for protests and violence and has several criminal cases pending is allowed to run again for the most powerful office in the world.
His grassroots popularity is why leading Republicans have publicly backed Trump. But in the background, his opponents are just waiting for Trump to stumble over his legal problems and have to bury his candidacy plans. In the meantime, nine Republican candidates have started their own election campaigns.
Experts speak of an “almost Potemkin candidacy”: the competition is waiting for Trump’s cardboard backdrop to collapse, for him to either go to jail or run out of funds.
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This wait is paralyzing Republicans. So far they have found neither a unifying message in the election campaign nor a political strategy for the future. Trump is thus the most important person for the Republicans – and at the same time their greatest risk.
When root canal treatment becomes a political issue
The situation is similar for the Democrats, albeit for different reasons. Ever since Biden announced his intention to run for re-election, Democrats have been asking a troubling question: what if Biden drops out mid-campaign? Or, if he’s going to serve a second term, won’t be able to complete it?
Biden’s age of 80 makes the president vulnerable. Should health problems intervene, the power vacuum could plunge the party into a crisis — giving Republicans advantages until the Democrats agree on a successor.
The extent to which Biden’s condition is under surveillance only became clear this week: Biden underwent a root canal and was represented by Vice President Kamala Harris, two weeks earlier he stumbled over a punching bag on a stage. The White House had to reassure the public with several messages – because in the US election campaign even routine interventions and mishaps become a political issue.
You may find this excitement exaggerated or age-discriminating, but it’s a fact. Any disruption, no matter how small, in Biden’s operations acts as a reminder of his age. It doesn’t matter whether he gets on his Peloton bike every morning or jets around the world.
Biden and Trump could not be more different. The Europeans in particular can count themselves lucky that they have a transatlantic partner in the White House in the Ukraine war – and not an angry citizen-in-chief who would prefer to abolish NATO. But in their own way, both Biden and Trump are a risk for the US election campaign and their parties – and thus for the political future of the USA.
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