The plans of the likely future government partners depend on the economic situation.
(Photo: Reuters)
The SPD, Greens and FDP have given themselves a sonorous name: the “coalition of the future”. Fulfilling this claim will not be an easy undertaking. The plans for climate protection, digitization and social security are expensive. It’s not yet clear where the money will come from – and it won’t be anytime soon.
Because the prospects have darkened in the past few months. While the economic researchers were still expecting a solid upswing after the corona blues in the spring, the aftermath of the pandemic is now unfolding its braking effect.
Supply bottlenecks and high energy prices have now also prompted the federal government to lower its economic projection for the current year. That growth should be caught up in 2022 is an encouraging outlook, but fraught with considerable uncertainty.
The economic situation cannot be transferred directly, but indirectly, to tax revenue. In 2021, the economic damper is likely to cause shortfalls in income. Money that the traffic light will lack. Because the uncertainties with a view to the forecast for the coming year have the consequence that the plans of the SPD, Greens and FDP have to be provided with a question mark.
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It is true that the new government coalition will not have to decide its budget for the coming year until the summer break and not, as in regular government years, in the previous winter. But the rapid pace of the coalition negotiations means that the financing must also be largely clarified.
Projects on hold
When Olaf Scholz is elected Chancellor in the second week of December, it will hardly be clear whether the difficulties in the international supply chains will soon calm down and whether oil and gas prices will return to normal levels in the long term.
The economic policy conclusion is as simple as it is unpopular: The coalition partners will have no choice but to display uncompromising pragmatism and calculate all projects as precisely as possible. The coalition agreement should name a core of projects that are financially feasible in any case. Everything else would have to be put on hold.
These projects could be implemented as soon as it is clear that the financial leeway is available. The hope remains that the future will be better than it is predicted today.
More: The next government starts with an uncertain cash position