Bitcoin It has struggled to surpass $38,000 recently but manages to maintain its position above $35,000.
Market participants think that Bitcoin is preparing for a rally towards its all-time high. This optimism is attributed to a potential spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval and the expected halving event next year.
Explaining his views in a TradingView post dated November 17, crypto analyst TradingShot suggested that Bitcoin is poised for a potentially parabolic rally in a few weeks as the cryptocurrency enters the pre- and post-halving phase of the market cycle.
In its analysis, TradingShot compared the current market cycle with the 2018-2021 and 2014-2017 cycles, where a nuanced understanding of BTC’s phases emerged.
The current analysis analyzes the Bitcoin price with the pre- and post-halving phase, and the fourth halving event is expected to occur in April 2024. At this stage, the price tends to touch or exceed the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.382 Fibonacci level serves as an important support, except for exceptional situations such as the pandemic collapse in early 2020.
BTC is currently positioned at the 0.786 Fibonacci level set at $50,000. According to the TradingShot model, cryptocurrency The unit is expected to reach this level soon or within 3-4 months following the upcoming halving event. The analysis also underlines the importance of maintaining support above the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $27,000.
Once the 0.786 Fib is broken, BTC should test the top price of $69,000 in a few weeks, which would be the beginning of the Parabolic Rally phase. Beyond that, how high the current cycle can extend is important in pricing the next ATH.
In the analysis, the analyst also drew attention to historical cycles and stated that the 2017 phase peaked at 2,382 Fibonacci extensions and the 2021 cycle reached 1,618 Fibonacci extensions. Analysts also highlighted the theory of diminishing returns, where there is a natural expectation that each successive cycle will not beat the previous one by a significant margin.
The analysis predicts a forecast based on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension of just above $120,000, while noting increasing adoption. A more conservative estimate puts the potential worst-case scenario at $100,000.