Ankara For the Turkish head of state Recep Tayyip Erdogan the “Turkish century” begins, while one of his challengers, Meral Aksener, starts with the motto: “Turkey will make history”. Before the important elections in May, the leader of the opposition Iyi party put up huge posters with her picture and this slogan all over the capital, Ankara.
Chances are she’s right. On May 14, more than 60 million Turks will elect parliament and the president. According to polls, head of state Erdogan is at risk of being voted out of office after 20 years. He has three challengers: the CHP’s Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is in a six-party alliance with Aksener, Muharrem Ince, who himself once ran for the CHP, and Sinan Ogan, who represents smaller nationalist parties.
Erdogan used to use harsh words against partners in the West and opponents in his own country to close ranks behind him. Terrorist attacks, an attempted putsch or a lack of support from Europe were good reasons to rededicate election day to decide the weal and woe of the nation. It’s been quiet for a long time now, although it’s not even four weeks until the election date. This was also due to the fasting month of Ramadan, which ended last Sunday. In the meantime, Erdogan and his challengers have long since switched to campaign mode.
However, Erdogan was also on the road a lot during the month of fasting and inaugurated several state projects. This is his campaign strategy: the President wants to show the citizens that he can offer them something. The first Turkish electric car from the local company Togg has been rolling on Turkish roads since the end of March. In early April, the government unveiled the world’s first military amphibious ship capable of launching combat drones.
Since mid-April, natural gas has been flowing from a field under the Black Sea to Turkish households and factories for the first time. In addition, the President wants to open a high-speed railway line in the middle of Anatolia and a nuclear power plant before the election.
The AKP and its president focus primarily on expensive election gifts. Erdogan recently raised the minimum wage by almost 100 percent, as well as the minimum pension and numerous civil servant salaries. The government finances cheap loans with a lot of tax money and at the same time supports the Turkish lira with millions of dollars. A special account held by Turkish state banks automatically compensates for exchange rate losses – financed by the taxpayer.
However, a series of earthquakes at the beginning of February with more than 50,000 dead overshadowed the election campaign in Turkey. President Erdogan twice apologized to the people for the late emergency aid. With millions of people left homeless, many are still living in tent cities or shelters across the rest of the country. Opposition leader Kilicdaroglu made Erdogan personally responsible for mistakes in house construction and emergency aid immediately after the earthquake.
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Polls show that Erdogan’s majority is anything but secure. In some cases, challenger Kilicdaroglu is clearly ahead of Erdogan. Which doesn’t mean that he can move into the presidential office immediately on May 14. Turkey’s electoral system changed radically in 2017 and again in 2022. “Almost everything is new in the upcoming election,” explains political scientist Selim Kuru.
So there is a possible runoff election for the first time. And in the current polls, no presidential candidate achieves an absolute majority, so there could be another ballot two weeks after the election.
Parliamentary elections will also take place under new rules. In the current system, if parties want to secure more seats in the legislature, they must lead a common list of candidates as part of an electoral alliance. This requires a lot of compromises. “The parties have to work really hard to accommodate each other,” analyzes Ragip Soylu from the Middle East Eye news agency in Ankara.
Above all, CHP leader Kilicdaroglu is doing everything to unite many different groups of voters. He had his most recent Twitter videos recorded in a typically middle-class Turkish kitchen. Many of his supporters now use the kitchen scenery as an artificial background in video conferences.
Kilicdaroglu is doing everything possible to unite many different groups of voters. He had his most recent Twitter videos recorded in a typically middle-class Turkish kitchen.
(Photo: Screenshot Kilicdaroglu Twitter)
The opposition promises to lower inflation. Above all, however, Erdogan’s opponents want to return to the parliamentary system, in which the president does not have as much say as Erdogan currently has. The CHP promises on election posters that it wants to give people back the “time, money and moments they lost because of the AKP”.
Uncertainty about the course of the election is having an impact on the opposition’s election campaign. For example, Mansur Yavas, the opposition mayor of the capital Ankara and candidate for the office of vice president, declared that the opposition would achieve visa-free travel to the EU within three months if they won the elections. “For technical reasons alone, it takes longer than three months,” warns an official from Brussels.
The opposition makes few concrete proposals
The opposition avoids addressing the really important issues. It does announce a reduction in inflation, but without presenting a concrete plan. In an interview with the newspaper “Die Welt”, the opposition Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, announced that if his party won the election, a solution would be found for the four million Syrians in the country. He didn’t come up with a plan.
The opposition does not want to change the internationally controversial Ukraine policy of the Turkish government, two party officials recently admitted. One told the online media Middle East Eye about the Crimean peninsula, which the Russians had annexed back in 2014: “I’m afraid a solution to the Ukraine conflict will not include Crimea.”
The planned return to the parliamentary system, the main promise of the opposition, is also unattainable for the time being. The current Turkish constitution provides for an executive president. In order to change the constitution, the new government would need a two-thirds majority in parliament. According to polls, Erdogan’s opponents are a long way away, as are a three-fifths majority for a constitutional referendum.
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In other words, if the opposition wins, they must first get by in the system that Erdogan created for himself. Opposition leader Kilicdaroglu promises to act as a possible president as if he didn’t have absolute power like Erdogan currently has. Nevertheless, such a constellation arouses desires – and could give rise to disputes over competencies and content within the widely ramified opposition in the event of an election victory.
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