There are doubts about economic growth in winter

Dusseldorf The current third quarter has apparently already been all but ticked off by economic researchers. In their recently revised forecasts, the major institutes almost unanimously expect that the German economy will have shrunk again at the end of the summer – by 0.2 to 0.4 percent compared to the previous quarter. Only the DIW expects a mini-growth of 0.1 percent.

What is far more remarkable is that the institutes are forecasting a noticeable recovery in the coming winter. They see 0.2 to 0.3 percent growth for the final quarter of 2023 and even 0.3 to 0.5 percent for the first quarter of 2024 – although these strong growth figures should then continue in the following quarters.

After a decline in economic output of around 0.5 percent this year, the institutes still see real economic growth of 0.9 to 1.4 percent in 2024. Thanks to rising wages and gradually falling inflation, private consumption is expected to recover significantly, at least according to the expectations of the institute economists.