Two strands on the bottom of the Baltic Sea, each 1224 kilometers long, a total of 200,000 pipes, welded and encased in concrete: the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline was probably the most important Russian infrastructure project in the recent past. It should transport 55 billion cubic meters of gas directly to Germany every year.
Today the building is considered an investment ruin. 9.5 billion euros – sunk in the sea. Russia’s war against Ukraine spelled the end of the pipeline brotherhood with Germany. The federal government stopped the certification. German project partners like Uniper have written off their investments.
But for the Kremlin, Nord Stream 2 is proving its strategic value, even now. In the economic war with the EU, the natural gas pipeline is a riving knife that gives Russia the opportunity to drive Europe apart.
The Russian state-owned company Gazprom is gradually restricting natural gas exports to the EU. First it hit Bulgaria and Poland, then Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands and the Baltic States were cut off from the supply. Meanwhile also Germany, France and Italy.
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“From now on, gas will be in short supply,” said Economics Minister Robert Habeck back in June. Since then the situation has deteriorated further. Gazprom has completely halted supplies via Nord Stream 1. Nord Stream 2’s older sister needs maintenance, the company claims.
The emergency is imminent
This week is the day of truth: the maintenance period ends on Thursday. The EU is preparing for the fact that deliveries will only be resumed at a greatly reduced rate – if at all.
The Commission in Brussels will present recommendations on gas rationing on Wednesday. The Ministry of Economic Affairs in Berlin activated the first two stages of its emergency plan weeks ago.
>> Also read here: Controversial climate foundation wants to quickly settle debts with Nord Stream 2 AG
Everything points to an emergency: The Kremlin is stoking a supply crisis in the hope that European unity will be broken. Unease is already growing, especially in Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas.
From the right, the AfD wedges against the sanctions policy of the EU, from the left, obstacles like Oscar Lafontaine rumble. And a poisoned offer comes from Moscow: If the Germans finally put Nord Stream 2 into operation, there would certainly still be gas for export.
In Germany, politicians are getting nervous
The Kremlin has perfected the game with the internal conflicts of democratic societies. In the event of a gas emergency, Russian propaganda would fall on particularly fertile ground. The fact that CSU General Martin Huber whispers that “Freeze for Peace” is “not a viable concept” shows how nervous the established parties already are.
Habeck’s ministry is unimpressed – for now. It is said that Nord Stream 2 will not go into operation. But if there is a gas emergency in the winter, bankruptcies and waves of layoffs will test the government’s stamina.
Proponents of using Nord Stream 2 will argue that the gas supplies promised by Russia would benefit all of Europe. And anyway: what use would it be for the EU if Europe’s largest economy collapsed?
But nobody should be under any illusions about what it would mean if Nord Stream 2 was commissioned. Germany would side with the aggressor Vladimir Putin, it would help the Kremlin to a political triumph and it would divide Europe. Nord Stream 2, designed from the start as a weapon against the EU, would have served its purpose.
Already by supporting the construction of the pipeline, the Federal Republic of Germany has seriously damaged its international reputation, especially in Eastern Europe, where the project met with fierce resistance. It will take years to regain that lost trust. If the crisis again means “Germany deadline”, Berlin has forfeited any claim to a leading role in the EU.
More: Reconstructing a state failure: How Germany ran into Putin’s energy trap