They then spread unnoticed on the Internet, with Americans not noticing the leak for over a month. Now they are wrestling with a major secret service scandal and are frantically looking for those responsible.
The fact that the betrayal of secrets represents a huge embarrassment for the Americans and harms their interests is just as unquestionable as the authenticity of most of the papers. Their publication creates distrust and insecurity – within the Washington apparatus, in relations with allies and among the general public.
This will be of greater importance for the further course of the Ukraine war than the actual content of the papers.
The uncertainty begins with the fact that no one knows whether the leak has been stopped or whether more documents have emerged in addition to the 100 or so that have already been published. On some platforms they have been deleted, on others they continue to circulate, with at least one being subsequently manipulated.
The revelations of the leading American media are correspondingly difficult to verify. It is in the nature of things that the authorities confirm them anonymously at best.
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The question of who is behind the publication cannot be answered unequivocally either. It is part of the conspiratorial aura of secret service affairs, especially in the post-Soviet region, that the main participants are also considered the main suspects: Ukrainian journalists suspect a disinformation campaign from Moscow and anonymous American government sources suspect that Russia is responsible for the leak, while Russian bloggers suspect that the Americans are staging the leak.
Both would violate their own security interests with the publication. Why should the Kremlin, for example, have documents posted online that report on a secret Egyptian missile program for Russia and the catastrophic weaknesses of its own army?
And why should the US publish details of its spying on allies and its deep penetration of Moscow’s security services, potentially allowing counterintelligence to uncover agents? Despite many uncertainties, there is a lot to be said for a single perpetrator.
War record so far: At least 8500 dead civilians
The documents for the relationship between the USA and Ukraine are likely to have the greatest impact. The fact that the Americans were spying on President Zelenski should annoy him just as much as their skepticism about the chances of success of the planned counter-offensive.
The Russian propaganda and military leadership, on the other hand, will be happy about the details of equipping new enemy units with Western weapons, the weaknesses of the Ukrainian air defense and the presence of almost 100 members of Western special forces in the war country.
Open Secrets
And yet it is striking how calmly Kiev is reacting and even using the leaks for its own purposes: a spokesman for the Air Force said that the West knows what needs to be done to strengthen the ally’s defense capabilities.
This composure may be partly artificial, after all Ukraine, given its dependence on the USA, has little to gain from an in-depth discussion of the indiscretions and would have preferred to keep some details secret.
Nevertheless, a sigh of relief can be felt that the leaks primarily reveal open secrets that hardly surprise the experts. The lack of ammunition in Ukraine has long been known, as has the slow delivery of Western combat vehicles.
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The maps showing military positions on the front lines are also less detailed than some created by open source intelligence specialists on relevant platforms. Details about the planned counter-offensives are not found.
Nevertheless, one should not underestimate the effect of the leaks: Like hardly any war before, the one in Ukraine is being waged for the sovereignty of interpretation in public. Support from abroad remains central to Ukrainian morale in the freedom struggle.
This will probably become more precarious as a result of the “Pentagon Leaks”, since the image that the Ukraine war is being waged by the Americans against the Russians, who are putting pressure on their reluctant partners, is likely to become more widespread in the global public sphere.
This reduces the incentive for other countries to take on more responsibility and potentially increases Ukraine’s dependence on the Americans. At the same time, the documents fuel distrust between Kiev and Washington.
As a result, they should contribute to a reduced flow of information between each other, which makes the alliance more susceptible to miscalculations. Precise coordination remains central to Ukraine’s success.
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