The French president has been badly damaged by the wrangling over his pension.
(Photo: REUTERS)
Paris Once upon a time, there was a French president who stood for change, for a fresh alternative in a deadlocked political system. One who was cheered by the crowd when he celebrated the election victory to the sounds of the European anthem “Joy, beautiful gods’ sparks” at the Louvre in Paris. This is how the fairy tale of Emmanuel Macron began in May 2017.
Abroad, and especially in Germany, this glorified Macron story was very well received. On the other hand, a non-negligible part of the French, especially from the left and right fringe, has always had a great rejection of the president and his penchant for self-portrayal or even self-aggrandizement.
This rejection grew steadily, brought the country into turmoil during the yellow vest protests and is now reaching its peak with the fiasco of the pension reform.
Macron’s twilight has finally arrived, a year after his unglamorous re-election as president and nine months after his center alliance lost majority in parliament. Even if the vote of no confidence against his government on Monday evening narrowly failed: Domestically, Macron is threatened with four crippling years of his remaining term.
The stalemate over pension reform illustrates the full extent of Macron’s loss of power. The President stands there damaged. At the same time, the controversial law in no way leads to social cutbacks, as critics claim. In essence, the government has proposed gradually raising the statutory retirement age from 62 to 64 – with exceptions for those who have been in work for a particularly long time.
Against the background of the aging society, there are very good reasons for this. One might even blame Macron for not going far enough. In Germany, the retirement age increases to 67 years. In France, however, there is much more at stake than just pensions: the violent protests are an outlet for social dissatisfaction, the roots of which go back to before Macron.
>> Also read here: Macron’s government survives vote of no confidence – but protests against pension reform continue
In the end, the president pushed through his pension law without a vote in the National Assembly, using special executive powers. Article 49.3 of the constitution, which effectively eliminates parliament, can be used by the government no more than once per session outside of budgetary legislation.
Macron is being attacked like never before for his decision: his opponents portray him as an anti-democrat. But there are many people responsible for the political crisis: for example, the left-wing populists of indomitable France, who talk a lot about parliamentarism and at the same time make it impossible to find a consensus with fundamental opposition.
Then the Rassemblement National around Marine Le Pen, which is in no way inferior to the left camp in rejecting Macron, but feigns a bourgeois image. Finally, the conservative Republicans, who, based on their traditional understanding of economic policy, should actually support Macron’s pension plans, but have fallen out internally.
Poisoned political climate
How is Macron supposed to find majorities for future political projects in this climate? Replacing the government team including the prime minister, a popular means of restarting French politics, is unlikely to be enough in view of the poisoned mood.
Macron could dare to have a new parliamentary election – but given his current popularity ratings, he has to fear that his alliance will end up with even fewer MPs. A coalition government with a coalition agreement like the one in Germany might have been conceivable immediately after Macron’s defeat in the parliamentary elections in June 2022, but it’s too late for that now.
>> Read here: Macron wants to address the French in a television speech
After last year’s presidential election, Macron promised his compatriots a new style of politics. With the pension law that has been pushed through, he is now helping his opponents to prove that the French are still dealing with the old Macron. An aloof and elitist president who doesn’t listen to the citizens.
Macron doesn’t have to worry about re-election, he can’t run again in 2027. But the question has long been: What comes next? There is no clear successor candidate from the President’s central alliance. The two former mainstream parties, the Socialists and the Republicans, who are in the tradition of the Gaullists, are currently far from power.
Populists on the rise
The left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon is revered by his supporters as a savior, but outside of his bubble he polarizes the French even more than Marine Le Pen. In contrast, the right-wing foreign politician has systematically built a moderate image for herself in recent years.
In any case, the polls indicate that it is not the left-wing parties close to the unions that are benefiting from the pension dispute, but the Rassemblement National. It would be bitter irony: Macron as the involuntary pioneer of the anti-EU icon Le Pen. Then not only France would have a problem, but also Europe.
More: Marine Le Pen benefits from dispute over pension reform