Brussels It’s the images that are likely to have caused many politicians in Brussels to put their hands in front of their faces again: At the beginning of May, Serbia proudly presented its latest military shopping loot. Ironically, an air defense system from China based on Russian technology.
Serbia, which rejects the NATO defense alliance but is surrounded by six member states and a potential future NATO country, is arming heavily.
In addition, it tries not to commit itself to a fixed partner in its international relations. On the one hand, Belgrade relies on loyalty to Russia, because the Serbs refer to the Russians as their orthodox sister nation. The country is also emphasizing its “iron” friendship with China, which is giving it a lot of economic support and sending medical goods to the public during the corona crisis. On the other hand, in talks with Western politicians and the media, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic repeatedly emphasizes that he wants to be a member of the European Union, although that does not reflect his policies and he repeatedly scolds Brussels.
In 2009, Belgrade applied for EU membership, and negotiations have been going on since 2014. Actually, Serbia should be included in the group of member states in a few years, but both internally and externally, Serbia is moving further and further away from the EU. The population has become increasingly EU-skeptical in recent years: Only 21 percent of Serbs have a positive opinion of the union of states, according to a survey conducted in March by the market research institute Ipsos. A new low.
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Serbian foreign policy is not in line with that of the EU
Domestically, there is a problem with the rule of law, and the government has not passed the necessary reforms. Corruption is a problem, as is a lack of press freedom and the oppression of minorities. Critics say Vucic has autocratic tendencies, and there are allegations of election manipulation.
In terms of foreign policy, life is oriented towards the East. Vucic hesitated for days to clearly condemn Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Despite pressure from Brussels and Washington, Serbia has not joined the Western sanctions against Russia.
The HQ-22 is developed in China.
(Photo: AP)
At the end of last year, the EU Commission’s progress report complained that Serbia’s foreign policy was not in line with that of the EU – a geostrategic and security policy problem for Brussels that became even greater after the Russian invasion. A spokeswoman for the EU Commission told the Handelsblatt that it is expected that Serbia, as a candidate for accession, will adapt to the EU positions towards Russia.
>> Also read here: A president close to Russia and China: Serbia’s election results worry the EU
The Serbian proximity to Russia is not altruistic. Along with China, Russia is blocking Kosovo’s admission to the United Nations in the Security Council. Serbia does not recognize the independence of Kosovo and claims it as its own. In order to become a member of the EU, however, Serbia would have to give up Kosovo – which Belgrade is not willing to do.
In addition, Serbia is 90 percent dependent on Russian gas and receives it from Russia at a friendly price: it is billed for less than a fifth of the world market price. A gas embargo would jeopardize Serbian prosperity, and the current gas contract expires on May 31, 2022, and Vucic still wants good terms.
“I am aware of the difficulties arising from Serbia’s almost total dependence on Russian gas, but the EU is ready to step in and support,” said Green foreign policy leader Viola von Cramon, a member of the European Parliament’s Serbia delegation. However, she made it clear: “We have to be sure who our partners are and who we can rely on in such situations.” The time of balance between Moscow and the West is over, said the MEP.
Should Serbia not deviate from its pro-Russian course, it threatens to become a second Turkey in terms of EU enlargement policy. The accession negotiations with Ankara will no longer be continued.
For diplomatic and geostrategic reasons, however, they do not want to be officially canceled. Pre-accession aid is also still being transferred to Ankara, but the European Court of Auditors complained a few years ago that EU funds were not being used effectively.
Vucic is upset with Putin’s statement on the Kosovo issue
“It’s time for Serbia to let us know where it is,” urged Cramon MEP. “Once this answer is known, we can consider whether we can keep the pre-accession funds and other bilateral support, or whether the EU should end this support.”
>> Also read here: Is Bosnia and Herzegovina Putin’s next gateway?
The European funds are immensely important for Vucic: four billion euros in development aid have already flowed from Brussels, making the EU the most important donor. It is the most important trading partner anyway: almost one million of the seven million Serbs live from business with the EU. Accordingly, Serbia cannot afford to turn away from the EU, which fuels hopes in Brussels that the country will join the EU’s foreign policy after all.
Especially since Belgrade is currently angry with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He had compared Crimea to Kosovo, but with a logic that doesn’t fit with the Serbian claim to Kosovo. “Our position changed for the worse after Putin’s statement on the Kosovo issue,” Vucic said. Around two-thirds of Serbs currently consider Russia to be their most important ally.
Both presidents are close, but recently Putin’s comparison of Crimea with Kosovo caused trouble in Serbia.
(Photo: dpa)
After a visit to Serbia at the end of April, US politicians were already saying that Belgrade would make a change in its foreign policy in the next two months.
In fact, Vucic announced last Friday in a keynote address to the Serbian people that lasted more than an hour and a half that he wanted to do politically what was in the interests of the state. “Serbia will be stronger on the European path,” said the Serbian President, which is why he will “fight for a place in the European family.”
In an interview with the news portal Euractiv on the same day, however, his Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin again emphasized that Serbia would not impose sanctions on Russia. “The countries that bombed us do not have the moral right to ask us to go along with their policies,” he said. And further: “If EU membership has anything to do with the motto that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then Serbia really does not want to play this game.”
Instead, the Serbian game of not wanting to commit will probably go into another round.
More: Interview with Vucic: “We are not yet part of the EU – unfortunately”