The energy transition must not be lost sight of.
(Photo: dpa)
Dusseldorf The goals of the energy transition have never been more difficult to achieve. A true sentence that my esteemed colleague Klaus Stratmann wrote in his editorial a few days ago. What he didn’t mention: Achieving these goals has never been more important than now.
However, the war in the center of Europe is shifting our priorities. Affordability and security of supply are suddenly no longer a matter of course. Many are therefore calling for a change of course. A return to nuclear power, a later phase-out of coal and even domestic natural gas production dominate the debate.
The decision to connect more coal-fired power plants to the grid is the right one. Keeping nuclear power plants running as long as possible into next year is also necessary. But that’s not enough for some.
They are demanding a year-long extension of the lifetime of nuclear power plants and natural gas production in their own country. Some are even talking about postponing the exit from coal. And here we are not talking about 2030, but about the legally stipulated year 2035.
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Suddenly even the former financial manager and current Union politician Friedrich Merz is the ultimate energy expert. Horror scenarios of nationwide blackouts (power failures lasting several days) are attempted in talk shows with millions of viewers in order to carry out political trench warfare on the backs of fearful citizens.
The fact that real power grid experts do not think blackouts are likely this year either is ignored. A short-term and controlled regional load shedding to keep the grid stable (but only in the worst-case scenario) is something completely different from the doomsday scenario of a nationwide power outage lasting several days. The ideologically charged debate on both sides obscures the view of the actual problem.
The question “Is there a threat of #Winter a #Blackout in Germany?” is on the minds of many people right now. As a transmission system operator, we want to make the debate more objective. That’s why we’ve put together some information. A #thread 🧵:
— Amprion (@Amprion) September 15, 2022
A real problem is the electricity gap that we will run into over the next ten years as electricity consumption increases. So how can this gap be closed without planned Russian natural gas? The simplest solution would be more coal, more nuclear and fracking. Security of supply is thus gained. However, no healthy company would independently initiate such a project in the currently unpredictable market situation. So it would take billions of government-funded funds to go down this path. Money that would in turn be missing for the expansion of renewables. For energy that lulls us into a false sense of security.
Over the last 20 years we have seen what happens when the switch from fossil to renewable energy occurs without a certain need. Too little. Droughts, floods and heat are unlikely to change much in this stoic attitude of society, which prefers to leave everything as it is or was. After all, we here in Central Europe will not feel the worst effects of climate change. Even if that should be motivation enough.
This means that the fight against climate change is lost, not only with regard to coal and fracking, but also with regard to the affordability of energy. The cheapest way to generate electricity today is renewable energy. Everyone can control that themselves. In the hours when our needs are covered by more than 70 percent green electricity, the exchange electricity prices go down rapidly. Nobody can ignore this fact. The more renewables are connected to the grid, the cheaper electricity will be in the future.
The more critical point is the issue of security of supply. Biogas and hydropower alone cannot close this gap. That’s what natural gas was for. Now our largest supplier is no longer available. Of course, billions could now be invested in fracking. Finally, we also import fracked natural gas in the form of LNG from the USA.
Gas market experts assume that these imports can replace most of the lost Russian volumes in two years. However, this only applies under one condition: gas consumption must be reduced. The industry is showing that this is possible.
Many things can be done in Germany all at once when it comes down to it. The past two Corona years have proven that, and the war is also showing us that. There is not one solution, but many small ones. Now it is important to save energy wherever possible, not just in times of crisis. And to promote the expansion of renewables. From wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal energy, green hydrogen to storage. Not only in our own country, but across borders with our European neighbors. Nobody said that the energy transition is a one-country project.
On the other hand, those who are demanding that fracking be resumed within three years or that nuclear phase-out be reversed cannot claim that it is impossible to quadruple the expansion of wind and solar energy. Germany is at a turning point. The only question is: in which direction is it going?
More: There is a huge gap: the energy transition is beyond all realities