Berlin, Cape Town Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s (SPD) itinerary shows what Africa currently symbolizes for Germany: hope for new sources of energy, the struggle for influence with Russia and China, and the difficult role of a mediator between the fronts.
German-African relations have changed. Until recently, it was all about Germany’s commitment to combating the causes of flight, but now Germany has to present itself as an attractive political and economic partner in a geopolitically new situation. In competition mainly with Russia and China.
Scholz will visit Ethiopia and Kenya on Thursday and Friday, and will be accompanied by a business delegation. Company representatives from different sectors such as agriculture, industry and the energy sector should advertise and make new contacts.
They have a lot of competition: China in particular and, more recently, Turkey, are very active in East Africa, building infrastructure projects such as a railway project between Uganda and Kenya.
Nevertheless, there are high hopes for the visit to Kenya. The country is considered to be Germany’s most important economic partner in East Africa and one of the pioneering countries when it comes to green energy. Kenya gets about 90 percent of its energy from renewable sources, as Scholz emphasized on Wednesday at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue. At the same time, the country is massively affected by the consequences of the climate crisis – there is an extreme drought in the north.
Closer cooperation on geothermal energy and green hydrogen
Germany and Kenya want to work more closely together on energy issues such as geothermal energy and green hydrogen. Developing climate-neutral energy sources of the future in Africa is currently a major concern of the Federal Government. A major project is to be developed in Namibia. Germany attracts investors and buyers of clean energy.
The two politicians met at the end of March.
(Photo: IMAGO/Jürgen Heinrich)
But Kenya is also considered a role model on the continent in other respects: one of the largest IT centers on the continent is located in the so-called Silicon Savannah in the capital Nairobi.
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“Germany needs new strategic partners and should also look for them on the African continent,” demands Sabine Dall’Omo, Managing Director of Siemens in Sub-Saharan Africa and Chairwoman of the German-African Business Association. “Kenya, with its business-friendly course, offers trade and investment opportunities.” She sees a great interest there in intensifying cooperation with Germany.
But the economic prospects are also clouding over on the eternal continent of opportunity. The World Bank has just forecast average growth of just 3.1 percent for Africa for the current year. In October, it was still expected to be 3.5 percent. This is considered too low to compensate for the persistently high average population growth of around 3.3 percent and the high inflation.
What challenges companies and politics are facing
In Kenya, the fundamental challenge that many companies and politicians in the region are facing is also evident. There, the rifts in politics have been running for decades, especially between the different ethnic groups.
After almost eleven years, the Bundeswehr’s largest foreign mission is to end.
(Photo: IMAGO/Joerg Boethling)
Head of state William Ruto (55) is a Kalenjin, a representative of the third largest ethnic group. Violent outbreaks of violence repeatedly erupted after elections. At the same time, Kenya is also considered an important mediator for conflicts in the region.
According to Stefan Liebing, the recently resigned chairman of the Africa Association after eleven years, the lack of stability makes it increasingly unattractive for German medium-sized companies to implement investment projects in the region as planned.
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In a recent short study, Liebing writes: “The civil war in Sudan and the fragile situation in Ethiopia, even after the peace agreement, make the entire belt along the Sahara from the west to the east coast difficult.”
Russia as a theme
The chancellor must have realized how difficult it was on his outward flight. The Federal Ministry of Transport has banned German aviation from crossing the Sudanese airspace around the capital Khartoum. A military power struggle has been raging there for almost a month.
Scholz’s visit to Ethiopia, where the African Union has its headquarters, will also deal with the conflict in Sudan. The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine is also likely to become an issue. For example, Russia is trying to assert its influence through destabilization with the help of the Wagner mercenary group in the Sahel.
For example, Russia is trying to assert its influence in the Sahel zone by destabilizing it with the help of the mercenary group.
(Photo: AP)
During the visit to Ethiopia, a lot will revolve around the question of how Africa’s relations with Russia are developing – and what Europe would like to do to counteract this. In the region, Moscow is fueling the narrative that the West is to blame for the food shortages in many African countries because of its sanctions against Russia.
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The lack of grain imports of Ukrainian wheat had posed major problems for many countries after the Russian war of aggression when Russian military ships blocked the port of Odessa.
Split attitude towards Russia
The Ukraine resolution condemning Russia in February showed how divided Africa is in its attitude towards Russia. A total of 14 of the 48 sub-Saharan countries abstained. Five others, like Ethiopia, did not even take part in the vote. Eritrea and Mali even voted against the resolution.
Due to the developments, the federal government feels compelled to realign its policy. On Wednesday, the cabinet decided to reverse policy on the Sahel. Mali, where the Bundeswehr has been stationed since 2013, has increasingly turned its back on Western partners. Therefore, the partnership should now be sought more intensively with Niger, Mauritania and the states on the Gulf of Guinea, promised Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens).
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In order to present himself as a reliable partner, Chancellor Scholz wants to act as a peace mediator during his visit to Ethiopia. He wants to meet there with both Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and a representative of the province’s interim government in order to advance the peace process.
Ethiopia has long been considered a beacon of hope for the region. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for rapprochement with neighboring Eritrea and his commitment to civil rights. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the second most populous country in Africa had previously recorded economic growth rates of more than ten percent.
But in the Tigray many people were killed in the civil war. Government forces fight against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
At the beginning of his war, Ahmed assured that he would quickly bring Tigray under control so as not to endanger the economic situation in the rest of the country. But Tigray is still undefeated, since November there has been a ceasefire and a peace process. However, new fighting has flared up in Abiy’s home province of Oromia, further aggravating the security situation in Ethiopia.
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