The Caucasus stands between the EU and Russia

Tbilisi Shota Dighmelashvili takes a bottle of red wine from the fridge, the kind that Georgians also drink cold. He stops in front of a photo in the kitchen. Pictured is Lekso Lashkarava, a former comrade-in-arms killed on the sidelines of a demonstration.

The old apartment that Dighmelashvili walks through is the office of the pro-European Shame movement, which was founded against the influence of Russian elites in the country. With the motto, “Home to Europe”, Dighmelashvili and his allies brought more than 120,000 people to the streets of the capital Tbilisi in June – every tenth resident. At the time, Dighmelashvili gave euphoric speeches to the crowd.

Since Georgia was initially denied accession candidate status for the EU at the end of June, euphoria has been replaced by disillusionment for many. How is life for the large part of the population who have been deprived of the goal of EU membership?

For a long time, the country with its 3.7 million inhabitants was considered a flagship candidate for EU membership. As a result of the 2008 war in Georgia, around 20 percent of the country is still occupied by Russia. This is another reason why the desire to belong to the EU is so great. Here, home to Europe also means: away from Russia.

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Disorientation spreads among some, despair among others. “I’m very pessimistic about our European future,” says Kornely Kakachia, professor of political science in Tbilisi. If the Georgian government continues to isolate itself internationally as a result of the latest EU decision, “Russia would be the only option to turn to,” he said.

Demonstrators at pro-Europe demonstration in Tbilisi

In June, the movement brought over 120,000 protesters to the streets. But instead of euphoria, there is now disillusionment.

(Photo: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire)

Much is at stake for those who, like Dighmelashvili, are actively campaigning for accession and for European values ​​such as freedom of the press or sexual self-determination. Lashkarava, for example, the cameraman in the photo, wanted to accompany a demonstration against LGBTQ rights in 2021.

>> Read here: EU accession: Why Georgia wants to join the EU

Participants attacked him brutally, he died shortly afterwards. The activists of the Shame Movement are risking their own security – even in opposition to the government and the authorities, whom the group accuses of having further fueled the violence at the demonstration at the time.

People in Georgia worry about their safety

The government is not only standing in the way of minority rights, but also of EU membership – and thus the will of the people, says activist Dighmelashvili. According to a September survey by the US organization National Democratic Institute, 75 percent of citizens support EU membership.

Office of the group “Shame”

Shota Dighmelashvili and his associates at their headquarters. (Photo: Mareike Müller)

They most often cite their government’s lack of political will as the greatest obstacle to achieving this. Just under 30 percent of the population assume that the government will meet the EU accession criteria.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is acting as a catalyst for the country’s troubles and could push accession even further afield. According to the same data, Georgians are primarily concerned about their jobs, fear of poverty and rising prices – while at the same time more and more Russians are arriving in the country, wanting to avoid mobilization. The refugees need jobs and at the same time drive up rents and purchase prices. That’s just one, the economic aspect.

Many bars and cafés in Georgia only allow entry to declared war opponents, and residents express their displeasure with the new arrivals from Russia on graffiti and banners. “Putin kills people in Ukraine while Russians eat khachapuri in Georgia,” reads a poster on a balcony. Khachapuri is a Georgian specialty, a bread baked with cheese.

NATO sees Georgia as a “particularly vulnerable partner country”

Many citizens are once again concerned about security in the country. “A year ago, Georgian citizens would not have been against Russian tourists at all,” says political scientist Kakachia. But because of the recent huge influx, things have changed. His concern: “Putin could one day decide to protect Russian citizens in Batumi.” The coastal city lies on the Black Sea and is a popular seaside resort for Russians.

Memory of Alexander Lashkarava in the office of the Shame movement

The Georgian cameraman died last year after an attack at the group’s former building. (Photo: Mareike Müller)

Across the river that divides Tbilisi, Alexander Vinnikov, head of NATO’s liaison office in the Georgian capital, sits in his air-conditioned office with a map of the country behind him. He looks at the streets and cities, the mountains of the Caucasus – and the border with Russia. Vinnikov understands the concerns of the citizens.

>> Read here: Get out of Russia: Nach Because of Putin’s partial mobilization, more and more young Russians are fleeing to neighboring countries

He sees no immediate risk of further Russian military aggression against Georgia. However, the threat remains that Russia’s behavior is difficult to predict. Russian troops were “illegally on 20 percent of Georgian territory, including some only about 40 kilometers from Tbilisi.” Georgia is one of the “particularly endangered partner countries” for NATO. The country’s resilience to “hybrid threats” needs to be strengthened.

Also due to the strong solidarity with Ukraine, the concern of renewed aggression by Russia in the Caucasus is omnipresent. David Usupashvili has his office in front of the Parliament building, on the city’s main street. Anyone who wants to see him has to pass a series of commemorative plaques and photos of those from Georgia and other countries who fought against Russia on the Ukrainian side.

Entrance of a cafe in Tbilisi

More and more bars and cafés are pointing out that they don’t want guests who have sympathy for Putin. (Photo: Mareike Müller)

“Whatever the government is doing these days is similar to what you hear from Moscow,” worries the opposition politician, who is the leader of the Lelo party. He also said he had “never seen a government behave so rudely towards EU diplomats”. In his view, the government is moving away from the EU towards Russia.

Memorial at Parliament

Flowers, flags and photos here commemorate, among other things, Georgians who fought on the side of Ukraine against Russia. (Photo: Mareike Müller)

According to experts, the Georgian government is more likely to be close to Russia. Political scientist Kakachia, for example, analyzes the split as follows: “The big problem is that this government is strongly linked to oligarchic interests.” Its representatives are “really afraid” of losing the next election in 2024. “In Georgia there is a tradition of political vendettas. Losing elections could pose a threat to political – and even physical – survival,” Kakachia explains.

The reforms under ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili had once given hope to many in the population: for an end to corruption and a better human rights situation. Until Saakashvili made himself less and less popular, went into exile and ended up in prison on his return. There is great mistrust of the current government.

Now there is great hope for the elections that are due in 2024. “There’s no doubt about it. We will have a pro-European government,” says opposition politician Usupashvili, “by 2024 or sooner.” Many here are hoping that there could be early elections that would speed up the process.

“If the opposition manages to unite, they will persuade people to follow,” believes activist Dighmelashvili. However, the opposition is too fragmented to be considered a serious alternative at this time, he adds. “She’s getting weaker and weaker.”

His only hope: “If we shout loud enough as civil society – maybe the EU will hear us then.”

More: Ukraine: Why the Reconstruction Conference is about more than just money.

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