London/Brussels British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing his biggest test yet: Britain and the EU appear to be on the verge of settling their years-long dispute over trade with Northern Ireland.
“Our teams are working to find a solution in implementing the common framework. These are constructive talks,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. Sunak was also optimistic and spoke of a “constructive dialogue” during question time in the British House of Commons in London.
Should there be a deal, the British head of government not only has to convince the London-loyal Unionists in Northern Ireland of a compromise, but also justify his concessions to the hard-line Brexit supporters in his party.
Ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who negotiated and signed the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol in the exit agreement with the EU, could play a key role in this. Should Johnson reject the outcome of the negotiations and lead a right-wing rebellion in the parliamentary group, there is a risk of a showdown with the incumbent prime minister.
The biggest hurdles seem to have been removed
London-Brussels talks are at a crucial stage, according to diplomats in London. Both sides recently agreed to exchange real-time trading data.
Great Britain and the EU still do not agree on all the terms of Brexit.
(Photo: dpa)
This seems to have removed the biggest hurdles for a two-way street in trade to Northern Ireland: Goods from Great Britain that are to remain in Northern Ireland would be controlled far less strictly than those goods that are sent on to the EU via Northern Ireland. This corresponds to the British proposal with a system of “green” and “red” customs lanes.
However, this would require appropriate labeling of the goods, which business leaders such as Archie Norman, CEO of retail group Marks & Spencer, believe could lead to “excessively high and prohibitive costs”.
So far, all goods shipped to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK have had to be checked on arrival there because the province remains part of the EU single market under the Brexit deal. Both sides want to avoid a hard customs border between the two parts of Ireland so as not to provoke new tensions between unionists and nationalists.
The ECJ’s role becomes an acid test
Much more difficult is an agreement on the export of food or live animals. If the British continue to accept the rules of the EU, they would also have to anchor these standards in all future trade agreements with third countries. This is met with resistance from the Brexit supporters, who primarily insist on national sovereignty, as well as the idea that Northern Ireland could retain the EU rules for state aid.
Our teams are working to find a solution in implementing the common framework. They are constructive discussions. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
The future role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), which has the last word on legal issues in the EU internal market, could become a acid test. The hard Brexit supporters in London have so far rejected all compromises that would give the ECJ jurisdiction in Northern Ireland in the future. Aware of this red line, Sunak pledged on Wednesday he would do whatever it takes to ensure Northern Ireland’s sovereignty as part of the UK.
It is unclear whether a two-stage procedure, which is being speculated about in London and in which the European judges can only intervene if they are called by an upstream authority in Northern Ireland, would be a way out of the impasse. In Brussels it says: The Commission continues to insist that the European Court of Justice remains the final authority for all internal market issues in Northern Ireland.
The danger is that the dispute over the ECJ will be used by Brexit supporters and Northern Irish Unionists to block an agreement. In Belfast, Jeffrey Donaldson, head of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), insisted that Northern Ireland’s constitutional affiliation with Great Britain would hardly be compatible with the jurisdiction of the ECJ. The DUP only wants to pave the way for the formation of a government in the regional parliament in Belfast if the Northern Ireland Protocol is revised or overturned in their favor.
Sunak would like to finally get rid of the long-running dispute with Brussels, but has so far been unable to free himself from being held hostage by party rights. His predecessor Johnson officially emphasizes that he is loyal to the head of government. The gambler, however, is unlikely to have forgotten that Sunak, with his resignation as finance minister in early summer 2022, first initiated Johnson’s downfall and then prevented his comeback as prime minister in the autumn.
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