Credit Suisse, one of the well-established banks in Switzerland, has updated its dollar/TL forecasts. According to analysts’ forecasts, if the rate hike does not come, the dollar rate will continue to rise. If interest rates are increased, the dollar/TL parity will regress to around 11 TL.
The extraordinary experience of the Turkish lira against the dollar rate value lossnot only in Turkey, but also sat on the agenda of many countries. International banks and financial institutions started to update their forecasts for Turkey by following the developments closely. Now a new one has been added to them. One of the oldest banks in Switzerland Credit Suisse, talked about what kind of process awaits Turkey.
According to Credit Suisse experts, if the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) does not decide to increase interest rates, the rise in the exchange rate will go up to 14. In other words, a citizen who wants to buy 1 dollar will have to pay at least 14 TL. When we look at the statements from the CBRT and the government, we see that the rate hike is not even on the agenda, that is, the dollar/TL parity is above 14. it’s not too far we can say.
“For stability, interest rates and inflation should be close”
According to the experts who make evaluations about the dollar/TL, in order to ensure exchange rate stability, it is necessary to increase the inflation rate with interest rates. consistent it should. In Turkey, there is no such situation. TURKSTAT announced an inflation rate of 19.89 percent for October 2021. If the interest rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is 15 percent. So there is a 500 basis point difference between them. “Interest is the cause, inflation is the resultThe prevailing opinion of ” suggests that this gap will continue to widen instead of closing.
RELATED NEWS
It is claimed that sales in many sectors such as health, furniture and e-commerce have stopped with the increase of the dollar.
Credit Suisse analysts say that in case the CBRT raises interest rates contrary to expectations, the dollar/TL parity will decline. it will drop to around 11 they are thinking. However, in our country, where we are indexed to dollars in every field from raw materials to technology, even 11 it’s too high We can easily say…
Source :
https://www.bloomberght.com/credit-suisse-merkez-bankasi-yuklu-faiz-artisi-yapana-dek-dolartl-14-olur-2292755