State election becomes a mood test for Friedrich Merz

Should the SPD recapture Saarland, this could be the beginning of further electoral successes, so hopes within the party. An election victory in the Saar would also provide momentum for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia in May. Some comrades even dream of more: that the traffic light will also be established in the federal states and become the new standard alliance of the republic.

According to the Bremen political scientist Lothar Probst, a coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP could actually become an option in the upcoming state elections. “Wherever there is enough for a traffic light alliance, there is a high probability that it will happen,” Probst told the Handelsblatt.

However: A traffic light alliance is not as clear as some in the SPD hope in any of the three federal states. Not even if it should mathematically be enough. Both the Greens and the FDP have little desire to chain themselves to the SPD as junior partners. “We need equidistance to the Union and the SPD,” says an FDP politician close to party leader Christian Lindner.

Which coalition options would be possible in Saarland

And even the Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia want to keep all options open and can also imagine a coalition with CDU Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst. So says NRW Green Party leader Felix Banaszak: “There is no automatism for one or the other constellation. We want to green the next state government and fight for our content, not for any color constellations.”

>> Also read here: The Saarland: Between Champions League and relegation battle

In Saarland it even looks as if a traffic light alliance would not be possible at all. In polls, the SPD was clearly ahead of the Union with 39 percent, which only got 30 percent. However, the question is whether the potential junior partners of the SPD will even make it into the state parliament.

In polls, the Greens currently come in at six percent, the FDP at just five percent. A red-green government would then be conceivable, for example, if the Greens move into the state parliament and there should be a mathematical majority.

However, the Saar Greens are considered to be poorly organized. Due to glitches, the state association was not even able to submit a valid list for the federal election. This embarrassment made headlines nationwide.

State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia will be the most exciting

In Schleswig-Holstein, on the other hand, where elections will be held on May 8th, there is “a good chance that a Jamaican coalition will remain in place if the CDU manages to remain more or less on an equal footing with the SPD,” says political scientist Probst. Most surveys recently saw the Union ahead, sometimes even by a significant margin. Forming a government past the strongest party would be difficult with such an election result. Greens and FDP are then more likely to orient themselves towards the Union.

But the most exciting thing will be the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia on May 15th. There, the CDU and Liberals have reliably formed a coalition with each other, and the FDP would then have to change sides after one legislative period. “That could be very unpopular in the FDP,” says political scientist Probst.

Many liberals see it the same way. Strategically, it would be wiser to stick to the black-yellow coalition in order to send a signal that we are still open to all government constellations, according to the federal party.

>> Read also: Union extends lead at federal level – close race between CDU and SPD in NRW

But that is – as of now – not very realistic. After the SPD was suddenly ahead in polls in North Rhine-Westphalia after the federal election, the mood has recently turned somewhat in favor of the CDU. In a Forsa survey, it was again five percentage points ahead of the Social Democrats with 32 percent. But a black and yellow majority is currently clearly out of reach given the poll numbers of eight percent for the FDP.

Patchwork quilt in the Federal Council

For a black-green alliance, on the other hand, it would be just as sufficient as for a traffic light. The big question then is how the Greens in NRW decide. And that is by no means as clear as it seems. “Government is not an end in itself for us, we want to achieve our substantive goals,” says Green Party leader Banaszak. “We will look very closely at which constellation a socio-ecological awakening in NRW will be most successful.” Of course, the Greens also want to drive up the price in possible coalition negotiations if they have the choice between the Union and the SPD.

However, many Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia are bothered by the way the SPD deals with the eco-party. Even when the Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia were clearly ahead of the SPD in polls, the Social Democrats would have spread their legs and said: “We 35 percent, you 15 percent, and then we’ll form a coalition, right?” Because the SPD the Greens had “priced in” as a coalition partner, they were sometimes not very open about the content.

In view of the majority in the Bundesrat, Probst does not necessarily believe that a traffic light coalition would be desirable in order to get less headwind from Union-led state governments in the case of federal legislative projects. “The Bundesrat is now represented by a patchwork of different coalitions at state level,” said the political scientist. “It’s not quite as important for the traffic light coalition as the majority is – they change there quite often anyway.”

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