Stand up to the evil club

In the meantime, evil even has a name again: Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. On February 24, he began his brutal, illegal attack on Ukraine. We are witnesses of the worst war crimes, for example in the Kiev suburb of Bucha. Again the world experiences a turning point, this time a dramatic roll backwards. The geopolitical constellation is shaped by the struggle of dictators and autocrats against the western model of democracy and freedom.

A counter-revolution by totalitarian regimes that see a threat in Western values ​​such as the rule of law, parliamentarism and freedom of expression can be seen.
Evil even has its own club: in addition to Russia, it includes those states that voted against condemning the war of aggression in the UN General Assembly at the beginning of March: Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Eritrea.

Are there really only four rogue states?

Western media reported with relief that only these four rogue states supported Russia’s aggression. But that is only the half truth. 35 countries abstained from voting, including 17 African countries, almost all of which have close economic ties to China through the “New Silk Road” infrastructure project. The two democracies of India and South Africa, like China, were not prepared to condemn the war of aggression. Collectively, these countries represent half of the world’s population.

Also significant is the recent vote on a resolution in the UN General Assembly to exclude Russia from the Human Rights Council. The resolution was accepted – but against the opposition of 24 countries, including China, Iran and Vietnam. There were also 58 abstentions, for example from such important countries as India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

With regard to Putin’s war in Europe, it should not be forgotten that China is also an increasing security challenge for Europe and the West. The strategic partnership between China and Russia, publicly celebrated by Presidents Xi Jinping and Putin shortly before the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing, not only includes Moscow’s claim to Ukraine.

The EU must act geopolitically

It also includes Beijing’s claim to the “breakaway province” of Taiwan, which was confirmed by Moscow in the February 4, 2022 “Joint Statement”. Putin rejects any form of independence for Taiwan and thus encourages possible aggression by China. Together Moscow and Beijing reject Western values. Xi likes to emphasize that some countries have “taken terrible damage” to Western values.

What he means by that are, for example, minority rights and freedom of the press. How “damage repair” works à la Xi can be seen in Hong Kong or the re-education camps for Uyghurs, Kazakhs and other ethnic groups in the Chinese province of Xinjiang. It remains to be seen whether China will become a patron saint of the evil club. A litmus test for this today is Ukraine. And tomorrow Taiwan?

In view of this constellation, a geopolitically active European Union is the order of the day. We need a common army. It would be important to build nuclear capabilities into this army, ie France’s Force de Frappe. Strategies for a future cyber war should also be developed at European level, using its own cutting-edge technologies.

A Trump comeback is possible

In order to come closer to the goal of “world political capability”, the EU must finally say goodbye to the principle of unanimity in foreign policy issues and be able to make decisions with a qualified majority. A European foreign minister would also come within reach.

So far, NATO has proven itself as an alliance in supporting Ukraine against Putin’s war of aggression – not least thanks to US President Joe Biden. However, a comeback by Trump or one of his national-populist epigones cannot be ruled out in the next presidential election. For the USA, NATO could then quickly become “obsolete” again. This is one of the reasons why Europe and the EU in particular must develop their own military strength.

The ability to defend requires functioning armies. After reunification, Germany was the first to cut defense spending – from almost three percent of gross domestic product (GDP) during the Cold War to less than two percent in the 1992 budget. By the way, Helmut Kohl was chancellor at the time. Most recently, the defense budget has languished below 1.5 percent of GDP for years. There was a naïve belief in the good, there was talk of a “peace dividend”.

China is waiting to see how the war in Ukraine ends

That is why Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement that he now wants to invest two percent of GDP annually in defense and an additional 100 billion euros from a “special fund” is trend-setting and overdue. The apparent overcoming of bloc thinking has finally been a thing of the past since Russia’s attack on Ukraine. There is no question: for decades, Germany and the EU have benefited economically from their geopolitical naivety. Cheap gas from Russia has not only helped make Germany’s industry the world export champion. The profits have also contributed to the expansion of the welfare state.

You have to think about that, even if the call for a gas embargo against the country of the war criminals is getting louder and louder. Of course, every euro that is paid to Putin’s regime hurts. But do we really have to risk a deep recession in the sense of “moral purification”? “Do we want to destroy our entire economy with our eyes wide open?” asks BASF boss Martin Brudermüller.

Meanwhile, China is apparently waiting to see how the war in Ukraine turns out for Putin and the Russian economy. We Europeans must use this time to become more defensive both economically and militarily. This is the only way we can stand up to the club of evil.

The author: Günther H. Oettinger is President of United Europa eV He was Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg and EU Commissioner for Energy, Digital Economy and Society, Budget and Human Resources.

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