Bitcoin slumped to three-month lows. It is possible to say that a “parabolic curve” has started thanks to the weakness in the US dollar. Now six analysts are putting out important insights. Let’s look at the details.
Famous Trader Mustache: It’s time to repeat for Bitcoin
Popular trader Mustache made important statements. In a tweet on July 11, he suggested that the time is right for BTC price history to repeat itself. Bitcoin’s previously strong inverse correlation to the strength of the dollar has waned this year. However, his latest moves are a hot topic among traders. The data shows that the Dollar Index (DXY) is on track to test support at the 100 level for the first time in months.
The dollar, which was above 105 before, faced stiff resistance at 20-year highs after 2022. Mustache believes that Bitcoin will gain as a result of the newly discovered bearish trend. Mustache “The calm before the storm. The Great Movement is still loading.” He’s using his expression. He summarized it accordingly, along with a chart that shows DXY challenging the bottom of a Gaussian channel on weekly timeframes. On the other hand, Mustache states that this situation led to a parabolic rally in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021.
Mikybull Crypto points to the $35,000 level for BTC
Famous trader Mikybull Crypto states that the downward DXY trend will continue. Accordingly, he states that as a result, BTC / USD will go to $ 35,000.
Analyst Josh Olszewicz: DXY chart matters
Famous trader Josh Olszewicz described DXY as the “most important single chart” for Bitcoin by 2024. Olszewicz says the dollar index shows technical weakness. What will happen when issuance of Bitcoin coupled with a programmatic decrease in supply? The post-halving could lead to an extremely large price reaction for Bitcoin. After the previous two halvings, DXY has similar moves from 100 to 90. Accordingly, it provided a tailwind for major multi-month bullish rallies. DXY is currently forming a descending triangle on a bearish high time frame. This chart pattern will be invalidated as DXY breaks higher at 103.50. However, a move to 90, the low of the historical range, will not invalidate the possibility.
William Clemente: April levels are back
William Clemente, co-founder of crypto analytics firm Reflexivity Research, added a broader perspective. Accordingly, he presented the year-to-year change in DXY versus how BTC/USD has behaved over the years.
Looking back, the last time DXY traded at the 100 level was mid-April 2022. At that time, Bitcoin was hovering around $40,000.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez: Are you still expecting a drop?
Crypto analyst Ali posed an interesting question to his Twitter followers. “Still waiting for Bitcoin to drop to $12,000?” asked. The industry has experienced liquidity problems, bankruptcies, and the collapse of Terra and FTX over the past year. Predictions that the Bitcoin price will drop to $12,000 have begun to circulate. Shortly after the Terra crash in June 2022, CNBC host Jim Cramer predicted that the Bitcoin price would drop to $12,000.
To contain inflation, the Fed began raising interest rates aggressively in 2022. This, in turn, hurt risky assets, including Bitcoin. According to estimates, the value of the entire cryptocurrency market has decreased by about $1.4 trillion last year as a result of falling prices.
Will Bitcoin drop to $12,000?
Not ignoring the possibility of a black swan, an unpredictable event that is beyond what would normally be expected from a situation and has potentially serious consequences, Ali says that Bitcoin is less likely to drop to the $12,000 level.
Referring to the on-chain data, Ali says the odds are in favor of the bulls. This is because the number of BTC holders buying between $16,000 and $30,000 is greater than those buying between $31,000 and $42,000. Therefore, more plausibly, bulls will jealously guard the $16,000 to $30,000 range as the stakes are higher.
Analyst Mike McGlone: Bitcoin will face strong headwinds
Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warns that Bitcoin (BTC) could face strong headwinds this year. McGlone tells his 58,800 Twitter followers that an economic recession is imminent in the US. Accordingly, he says that this may bring down risky assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptos.
McGlone also says that Bitcoin could perform similarly to the 30% drop before gold rally during the Great Recession of 2008. However, McGlone states that if Bitcoin can break its relationship with the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), it could lead to wider adoption. He also says that this will help Bitcoin perform stronger during the recession. cryptocoin.com Looking at it as a whole, McGlone also states that the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will give BTC a significant boost during the recession. But he stresses that it is unclear when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will make a decision on pending applications.
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