Following the BTC halving event that took place in recent weeks, Dave the Wave made an important prediction about the future performance of Bitcoin by sharing a chart supported by his own analysis. The chart he shared shows that the Bitcoin price could reach $169,500 in the last quarter of 2024.
Dave the Wave’s forecast is based on past bull markets. Considering Bitcoin’s trend since 2012, the analyst points out that Bitcoin’s returns have continuously decreased after each bull market. Dave the Wave describes Bitcoin’s future performance as “Almost the only constant, diminished return” summarizes. With this statement, he emphasizes that the decreasing trend in Bitcoin’s returns is a distinct and ongoing feature. The analyst expects this trend to continue in the coming period.
According to the analyst, BTC is expected to gain over 626% from the bottom. This represents a significant decline compared to the 1,275% gains observed in the previous 2020 cycle.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading with a small increase at $66,349.
Dave the Wave, on the other hand, used the logarithmic growth curve (LGC) to examine the future of Bitcoin by reducing short-term volatility. The LGC model focuses on predicting Bitcoin’s highs and lows in the market cycle, giving investors a glimpse into the future.
According to Dave the Wave, it is not unusual for Bitcoin to hit an all-time high, especially ahead of the halving. According to him, halving marks the midpoint of the bull market and Bitcoin is expected to rise rapidly after this point.
“There is a lot of discussion about the current Bitcoin halving reaching the highest price compared to the previous one.
But that’s not such a big deal when you see previous halvings pushing all-time highs…. And halving prices are also within last month’s sudden rise of previous ‘cycle’ peaks.
The conclusion from these charts is that halvings are more or less a recovery of prices and mark a midpoint towards the tops.
“We also think that the first peak last time should be considered a macro peak (in terms of momentum), even if the second peak saw a nominally higher price.”
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