Accession and shaky candidate.
(Photo: action press)
Brussels It’s nothing that surprises Brussels. And yet the heads of the European Union are worried about the outcome of the parliamentary and presidential elections in Serbia. President Aleksandar Vucic again emerged as the clear winner and will now be at the head of the Western Balkan state for another five years. He received around 60 percent of the votes, according to an almost complete count by the state electoral authorities. A runoff election is therefore not necessary.
His party, the Serbian Progressive Party, garnered 43 percent of the vote, just short of an absolute majority. It is therefore dependent on a coalition partner. It will be the Socialist Party of Serbia, which, like Vucic’s party, is also nationalist.
Vucic is pro-Russia and China-friendly and also likes to stir up anti-EU sentiment, although he officially presents himself as pro-European.
For Brussels, this is a problem in many ways. With the help of Russia, Serbia is deliberately destabilizing its neighbor Bosnia-Herzegovina, the most fragile state in former Yugoslavia. Belgrade did not want to join the European sanctions against Russia due to the war of aggression against Ukraine. In addition, the country rejects NATO and instead prefers to seek military cooperation with Russia.
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Furthermore, the Serbian President maintains close contacts with Beijing. At the beginning of the corona pandemic, Vucic officially spoke of an “everlasting Serbian-Chinese friendship”, whereas the EU cannot be relied on.
Serbian EU integration has not progressed for years
Critics say Vucic has an autocratic leadership style. He’s eroding the freedom of the press, controlling the amount of reporting about him. Opposition parties have no access to the wide-ranging television stations.
He also makes no move to address his country’s lack of rule of law. In relation to the election, there were allegations of manipulation, such as attempts at intimidation.
This is particularly piquant since Serbia is an EU candidate country. A few years ago, Jean-Claude Juncker, then President of the EU Commission, promised that it could become a member of the EU in the mid-1920s.
For years, however, Serbian EU integration has not progressed because decisive reforms have not materialized – probably due to Vucic’s reluctance.
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In the annual progress reports, the commissions repeatedly sent warnings to Belgrade, but otherwise the situation in Serbia is largely kept silent. Because you don’t want to push Serbia away either: a European-oriented Serbia is in the strategic security interest.
Fake news campaigns against the EU in Serbia
Other powers also know this and are trying their best to tie Serbia to themselves and remove it from European influence. China is investing in strategic infrastructure and key industries in a targeted manner, so that the country now has control over the Serbian steel industry, for example. Also a long-term calculation for Beijing: If Serbia becomes a member of the EU, this will also mean more influence for China in Brussels.
There is a massive Russian-led fake news campaign against the EU, so the majority of Serbs believe that most of the economic aid comes from Russia. EU funds account for more than three quarters of foreign investment volumes, while the Russian share is very small. In general, since Vucic has been in power, skepticism about the EU has increased more in Serbia than in any other Balkan country.
“Everyone in Brussels knows that Serbia cannot become a member of the EU like this, but no one wants to say so officially,” is the assessment of a Brussels expert on enlargement policy.
Similar to Turkey, the strategy of “keeping the door open” is probably being used. The accession negotiations with Ankara have de facto been frozen, but they do not want to officially break them off, lest the country turn away from Europe completely.
Nevertheless, there is a small glimmer of hope for the Europeans in the parliamentary elections: for the first time there is a real opposition in the parliament. The majority of the opposition parties had boycotted the previous election in protest at Vucic’s autocratic behavior, making parliament a mere snub for the Serbian president.
Now the opposition alliance “United for the Victory of Serbia”, consisting of left to right-wing conservative parties, achieved 13 percent of the vote. For the first time, a green party is also represented in Parliament with “Morao”.
More: The Western Balkans are a long time coming from EU accession – and China’s influence is growing