The US money supply has just crossed the $22 trillion mark, increasing at a rate of $1 trillion every four months, or about $8.6 Billion a day, over the past two years. Master analyst Mark Mead Baillie, who started to interpret the market by giving this information, analyzes the developments in the market and evaluates the effect on the gold price. we too cryptocoin.com As Mark Mead Baillie, we have prepared the analyzes for our readers.
“Short-term techniques for gold price look terrible”
The title of this week’s letter is an odd way of expressing it. More specifically, “Golden Harnessed, Silver Tarnished” or “Golden Hammered, Silver Shelled!” could write. However, no matter how we do it, short-term techniques look terrible. We love gold, but as the late Howard Cosell said, ‘It tells it like it is!’
Indeed, since we met a week ago, the high-to-low gold price has started to drop 75 points (from 1,854 to 1,779) in the last four trading days. Maintain this rate of point loss and gold will hit zero on June 15th of this year. Also, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator (core CPI) continued its course with another +0.5% for December, after +0.5% for both October and November. Calculating such consistent increases annually gives us an increase of 6.0%, which is basically in line with the Chain Extinguisher. That’s why, as outlined two posts ago, the US economy is stagnating rather than “really” growing. And you regular readers will also remember:
Historically, the gold price skyrocketed during such a scenario.
But given today’s paradigm, where gold ownership has been transferred to the Old Timers League, it’s price performance rather than a firework. The people we meet under the age of 50 these days laugh when we talk about gold. Because none of them own it, and they have no such intentions. Either way, today’s path to wealth is strewn with shiny objects rather than paved with yellow bricks. So until then, so be it.
“If these happen, $ 1,613 will come structurally”
Technically it looks terrible for gold now. According to the chart below of gold’s weekly bars from a year ago to date, the parabolic long trend, indicated by the row of blue dots on the far right, is about to turn into short. The price only needs to trade below 1,779 in the new week, sealing the deal. Gold price settled at 1,790 on Friday and the expected weekly trading range is now 49 points, the normal price volatility alone will do. At the very least, be prepared again for the annoying persistent price of 1,780.
And it’s not just our deMeadville analysis that looks awful for gold. Regardless of the platform you use, the standard “canned” studies also have short-term negative concepts. Whether gold’s daily bars, weekly or monthly bars, MACDs, money flows, EMAs and parabolics are not promising in the near term.
To be fair though, the burning question is “How low is low?” It must be addressed. It’s not an estimate, but if the year-over-year lows of the 1,680s are broken, it will come in at $1,613 structurally.
Next, let’s review gold percentiles along with key precious metal stocks from last year to date. Here Franco-Nevada (FNV) +8%, Newmont (NEM) 0%, Gold itself -3%, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) -15%, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) -34%. It’s really ugly. Now we go to the 10-day Market Profiles, gold on the left and silver on the right. Clearly both are on the downside with more technical downsides.
Finally, month-end, here we see the structure of gold with monthly candles since 2011. The endless war between the Northern Front and the Final Frontier continues as it did ten years ago when the US money supply collapsed. Half was today. We tend to call it diabolical again.
The coming week looks set to bring even more bad news for the Econ Baro: Of the 13 metrics on the Docket, at least half are expected to be worse than the previous period, according to the consensus. Of course, we learned that it was ‘true’ that there was almost no ‘consensus’ to maintain the Bar for 25 calendar years. But fortunately for gold, its true value ($4,108) is better than double its price (1,790) if the base ends up on a positive note!
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