Stockholm It was a relatively short statement and yet of historical importance: At 10 a.m. local time, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin issued a joint statement that Finland should join NATO “immediately”.
“NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security. As a NATO member, Finland would also strengthen the entire defense alliance,” Marin and Niinistö said in a brief statement. “Finland must submit an application for membership without delay. We hope that the national measures that are still required for this decision will be taken without delay in the coming days.”
The pro-Nato vote came as no surprise. After Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February, attitudes towards NATO membership changed dramatically in Finland. The fear that Russia could attack other countries after its illegal attack on Ukraine has led to a radical rethink. Finland shares a 1,300-kilometer border with Russia and therefore feels particularly threatened.
After decades of non-alignment, almost 80 percent of the population recently voted in favor of joining the North Atlantic Defense Alliance. Even within the coalition government led by the Social Democrat Marin, the supporters of joining NATO are in the clear majority. What was until recently unthinkable is now becoming a reality. Political scientists such as Charly Salonius-Pasternak speak of the “biggest turning point in security policy in decades”.
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With the statement of the head of government and the President, who is very important in foreign policy issues, Finland has submitted. On Sunday, Sweden also wants to announce its stance on joining NATO. It is considered very likely that the EU member will follow the example of its eastern neighbor, as both northern European countries have long maintained close military cooperation.
Russian threats do not deter Finland
Russia had threatened both countries with “serious military and political consequences” in a pro-Nato decision. The stationing of nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad, just 350 kilometers from the Swedish island of Gotland, is perceived as a threat in Helsinki and Stockholm. In recent weeks, there have also been several violations of Finnish and Swedish airspace by Russian military aircraft.
The transitional phase between a NATO membership application and actual admission to the defense alliance is causing concern in both countries. NATO paragraph 5, which defines an attack against a member country as an attack on all contracting parties and thus triggers the alliance case, is not yet effective during this transitional period.
That is why Finland and Sweden have had security guarantees from the USA, among others, in the past few weeks. Most recently, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was in Stockholm and Helsinki on Wednesday and promised military support in the event of an attack on the two northern European countries.
How long this transition phase will last is not yet foreseeable. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has assured both countries that they will be admitted “quickly”. It was heard from those around him that it could only be a matter of a few weeks. However, all 30 NATO countries must agree to the applications for membership. Therefore, the time frame is still unclear. In Finland and probably also in Sweden, the parliamentary course for the formal application for admission will be set at the beginning of next week.
Finland and Sweden would be welcome additions to NATO
Both countries have taken part in many NATO maneuvers in recent years. They also took part in NATO-led operations in Afghanistan and the Balkans. They have also coordinated the procurement of military equipment with NATO. Just before Christmas, Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the American armaments company Lockheed Martin for ten billion euros, while Sweden bought US Patriot anti-aircraft missiles.
The accession of the two countries would be a welcome reinforcement for NATO. Finland in particular would significantly increase NATO troop strength with 23,000 professional soldiers and 280,000 conscripts. The country also has 870,000 reservists. Sweden has significantly less active armed forces, but can boast an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”. This is the humorous name for the largest island in the Baltic Sea, Gotland.
It is only around 300 kilometers from the island to the Latvian capital Riga. Gotland is therefore of great strategic importance for the control of the Baltic Sea and an eventual defense of the Baltic countries.
The NATO accession of Finland and Sweden will change the defense alliance. Minni Ålander, Northern Europe expert at the Science and Politics Foundation, sees a partial reorientation of NATO. “The accession of Finland and Sweden could mean a shift in focus towards the Baltic Sea region for NATO. After all, eight of the 32 members of the alliance are Baltic Sea countries”.
Denmark welcomes Finland’s wish to join
Denmark welcomed the position of Finland’s political leadership in favor of rapid NATO accession. “Denmark will of course warmly welcome Finland to NATO,” Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen wrote on Twitter on Thursday. Finnish accession would strengthen NATO and common security. Denmark will do everything to ensure a speedy admission process once the formal application for membership has been submitted.
During a visit by Marin and the Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson to the closed meeting of the federal cabinet in Meseberg near Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently promised German support for the countries joining NATO.
More: Former Finnish Prime Minister on NATO: “We are ready to join tomorrow”