Bitcoin, the arrival of macro data and Mt. Gox is facing more than just the fallout from FTX in December as payouts loom. Analysts and experts share their Bitcoin predictions and insights.
“Monthly close of $17,500 is the most bullish result”
Bitcoin saw highs of $17,072 on Bitstamp. However, BTC still failed to flip the tops to support it. At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $16,900. According to analysts, $17,000 marks an important range that the bulls must retrace. So, until that happens, the status quo will continue. Popular analyst Cheds, saying that there was a shorting in the highs, makes the following assessment:
BTC bulls want to hold 16.8k as the first countertrend S/R turn. Going back down represents a small uptrend.
Hours before the monthly candle close, the markets are waiting for the volatility to begin and the losses following the 27 November weekly close to be erased already. In part of a Twitter post, analyst Credible Crypto records:
I’m looking for a monthly close above $17.5k for the best possible rise here. This point is the lowest in June.
Bitcoin price pile of “risk events”
cryptocoin.comAs you follow, BTC fell by about 17.5% for the month of November. However, analyzing expectations for December, trading firm QCP Capital has outlined a few ‘risk events’ for Bitcoin holders to take note of. These came in the form of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 13, which coincided with US lawmakers’ first hearing on the FTX debacle.
The next day, the Fed will outline its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) inflation expectations and policy. Crypto Circular comments in its newsletter:
So we believe that in a fear-ridden market, more one-off shocks may not come this close. However, many are constantly forced to sell their holdings to increase liquidity. So, we think that an ongoing deflation in the crypto market will continue into the next year… An extra potential catalyst for Bitcoin price volatility will come through the repayments to the defunct exchange Mt Gox’s creditors scheduled for January.
“Analyst does not expect the bounce in Bitcoin to continue
Bitcoin crossed the $17,000 level for the first time in two weeks, according to Coin Metrics. Thus, it saw its highest level since November 8 at $ 17,075. Vijay Ayyar, vice president of institutional development and international at crypto exchange Luno, says the higher move is likely a result of ‘overly leveraged shorts’.
The person who shorts an asset borrows a portion of that asset and sells it at a higher price. He then buys it back at a lower price. Thus, it transfers the profits from it to the banks. Short is when a trader buys back the asset at a lower price. This causes the price of that asset to rise. Ayyar makes the following statement:
Bitcoin price has seen ‘resistance’ at $17,000 and will likely fall further from there. It was just a bearish retest.
Bitcoin is on the way to apathy, according to the European Central Bank
Meanwhile, harsh criticism came from the European Central Bank (ECB) to Bitcoin. The bank says cryptocurrency is on the path of apathy. ECB Managing Director Ulrich Bindseil and Analyst Jürgen Schaff made the following assessment in their article titled “Bitcoin’s final stance”:
Bitcoin is signaling a respite on its way to new highs. However, it was most likely an artificially induced last breath before the road to apathy. This was already predictable before FTX went bankrupt and sent Bitcoin price well below $16,000.
“Bitcoin’s market cap is purely speculation”
Bindseil and Schaff say that Bitcoin does not fit an investment mold. They also note that it is also unsuitable as a means of payment. Accordingly, they explain their views as follows:
Bitcoin’s conceptual design and technological shortcomings make it questionable as a means of payment. Real Bitcoin transactions are cumbersome, slow and expensive. Bitcoin was never significantly used for legitimate real-world transactions. Bitcoin is also not suitable as an investment. It does not generate cash flows (like real estate) or dividends (like stocks). It cannot be used productively (like a commodity) or provide social benefits (like gold). Bitcoin’s market cap is therefore purely speculation.
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