Only heavy weapons can stop Russia in the Donbass

The Russians are using their superior firepower in the Donbass: They have more guns and more ammunition. Under the constant fire, the Ukrainian defenders reach the end of their strength. While the army’s morale remains high, their supplies are dwindling. The question of how quickly new Western equipment can be brought to the front will probably decide whether the Russians can completely conquer the Donbass.

Kyiv urges rapid delivery of arms

Before the meeting in Brussels, Kyiv therefore issued an urgent appeal to increase arms deliveries. For a victory against Russia, his country needs “1,000 155-millimeter howitzers, 300 multiple rocket launcher systems, 500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles, 1,000 drones,” wrote presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak on Twitter.

The Russians are currently concentrating their attacks on the Donbass. But the Ukrainians fear that if they succeed in the east, the aggressors will regroup and try again to seize the three main Ukrainian cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa.

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The first three months of the war showed that the Russian army was prepared to take heavy casualties on its offensives. The Russians are deploying much of their force in Ukraine, but still have reserves. In terms of military tactics, the firefights are now reminiscent of the battles of World War II, since the Russians have meanwhile fired most of their modern precision projectiles.

The EU countries and the USA have started delivering Western howitzers in recent weeks, and Ukraine is also to receive high-precision multiple rocket launchers. Coordinating these steps while ensuring that the Ukrainian army receives more ammunition will be at the heart of the Brussels deliberations.

“We are at a crossroads,” said the chairwoman of the defense committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), the Handelsblatt. The next few weeks, rather the next few days, would show which path the Ukraine war would take.

On April 26, US Secretary of Defense Austin invited supporters to the first meeting of supporters at the US Air Force base in Ramstein, Rhineland-Palatinate. At that time about 40 countries took part. According to American information, 47 nations were present at the first follow-up conference on May 24th.

At the planned third meeting there should be more than 50. Special expectations are directed towards Germany, which has so far only promised heavy weapons but not delivered them.

Germany is under criticism

In response to international pressure – and probably also in order not to stand there empty-handed – Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) announced at the meeting in April that Germany would deliver “Gepard” anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine. A little later, the minister also confirmed that seven tank howitzers 2000 should also be handed over.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) then followed up again in the general debate in the Bundestag on June 1 and described the German support services in detail. In addition to self-propelled howitzers, cheetahs, 15 million rounds of ammunition and 100,000 hand grenades, the Chancellor also announced the delivery of a state-of-the-art Iris-T anti-aircraft system and a high-quality locating radar.

In addition, discussions are being held with the United States about the delivery of multiple rocket launchers. It later became known that four systems of the Mars II type were to be delivered from Bundeswehr stocks.

And yet, a good six weeks after the first Ramstein meeting, Germany is still being criticized for delaying arms deliveries. The Ukrainian Ambassador Andriy Melnyk recently complained that not a single heavy weapon from Germany had arrived in his country.

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There is also no clarity as to when, for example, the promised Mars II multiple rocket launchers would be handed over, Melnyk recently told the Tagesspiegel: “We expect the traffic light to fulfill this promise quickly because our troops need this weapon system most urgently to protect the Ukrainian civilian population to protect against barbaric attacks by Russia.”

The federal government has so far been reluctant to make any concrete deadlines. A government spokesman said at the end of last week that Ukrainian soldiers were still being trained to use the Panzerhaubitze 2000: “In this respect, it makes sense that the weapons they are being trained on are also in Germany.”

The Bundeswehr does not even have the Iris-T air defense system itself, so this is about a contract between Ukraine and the defense industry. The background is that this is probably about a system that was originally supposed to be delivered to Egypt. In the case of the Mars multiple rocket launchers, on the other hand, technical questions still need to be clarified, such as how compatible the German and American weapons are and whether the ammunition is compatible.

The opposition is losing patience in the face of the evasive answers from the federal government: Although there is a joint decision by the SPD, Greens, FDP and Union on heavy weapons, the deliveries “have not gotten beyond the announcement stage and preparatory measures,” said Union parliamentary group leader Johann Wadephul (CDU ).

Union puts pressure on the traffic light government

The federal government risks “irreparably damaging” Germany’s reputation. That is why the Union now wants to submit a motion to the Bundestag calling on the Federal Government to “finally immediately and noticeably intensify the quantity and quality of German arms deliveries to Ukraine”.

Strack-Zimmermann emphasized that in addition to coordinating the aid, the talks in the Ramstein format must also be about Germany’s responsibility to “follow words with action”.

In fact, impatience is also growing in the NATO circle. There is little sympathy for the fact that the federal government is reluctant to supply equipment stored by armaments companies, such as the discarded Marder armored personnel carriers. High-ranking diplomats vigorously contradict Berlin’s statement that there is an agreement with the USA and other NATO partners that they do not want to supply western armored vehicles.

“There was and is no such agreement, not even informally,” it says. It is up to each country to decide which weapon systems it wants to supply. The decisive criterion must be the needs of Ukraine.

The government in Kyiv has repeatedly asked for the martens to be delivered. But Lambrecht and Scholz prefer complicated ring exchange schemes, in which Germany supplies surplus war equipment to countries that have Soviet-made material at their disposal. The advantage of this is that the Ukrainian soldiers have experience with these weapon systems. The downside is the time it takes. And time is running out for Ukraine.

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