The OECD expects economic growth of 3.9 percent for Germany in 2022.
(Photo: dpa)
Berlin Despite delivery bottlenecks and the fourth corona wave, the industrial nations organization OECD believes that the German economy can make a strong recovery. In 2022, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.9 percent, as the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) announced on its outlook published on Wednesday.
For comparison: the federal government is anticipating a somewhat stronger plus of 4.1 percent, and the economy even with 4.6 percent. “We are cautiously optimistic,” said OECD economist Isabell Koske of the Reuters news agency. “But there is enormous uncertainty and risks – from the corona crisis to delivery bottlenecks to inflation.”
For 2023, the OECD predicts an increase of 2.2 percent. For the year that is coming to an end, growth of 2.8 percent is expected. As is customary in Germany, all information has not been adjusted for the number of different working days.
“The recovery is being hampered by bottlenecks in key inputs in manufacturing,” said the OECD. However, given the record order backlog, there could be a strong recovery if the shortage subsides again.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
Private consumption should also increase noticeably in the next year. The low interest rates and the increasing pressure on capacity are encouraging companies to invest heavily.
Inflation is likely to ease in 2022, but will remain at an elevated level. “The inflation trend remains a risk,” said Koske. “The gas reserves in Europe are at a very low level. Depending on the course of the winter, there may be further price increases. ”
The delivery bottlenecks could also last longer than expected. “That could also have an impact on prices,” said the expert. At 5.2 percent, the inflation rate in Germany is currently at its highest level in almost 30 years.
The OECD also anticipates an economic recovery worldwide. This year, global economic output is expected to grow by 5.6 percent, then by 4.5 percent in 2022 and by 3.2 percent in 2023.
More: Holger Görg and Stefan Kooths take over the presidency at the Institute for the World Economy