New start for evacuation of Mariupol

New York, Zurich New hope for the heavily contested Black Sea city of Mariupol: The Ukrainian government says it has sent 45 buses to the besieged port city after Russia offered a ceasefire.

This increases the chances of saving residents from hunger and destruction, thousands of whom are still holding out in the largely destroyed city. The ceasefires have never lasted in recent weeks, which has prevented a large-scale rescue of the civilian population from Mariupol. Both warring parties blamed each other for the failure of the ceasefires.

It was initially unclear whether it would work this time. “We are doing everything possible to ensure that the buses go to Mariupol today and pick up people who haven’t made it out of the city yet,” said Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk.

Meanwhile, teams from the International Red Cross are on their way to Mariupol with relief supplies. Civilians should also be brought out of the besieged port city on Friday, a spokesman for the Reuters news agency said.

The International Red Cross is ready to accompany the planned convoy out of the city, provided that the exact conditions such as the route, start and duration are determined in advance. It is urgently necessary that aid supplies come into the city and people are brought out. “The lives of tens of thousands in Mariupol depend on it.”

The military situation

In addition, two humanitarian corridors have been agreed to the cities of Melitopol and Enerhodar in the Zaporizhia region, which are also occupied by Russian troops. Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock appealed to Russia to allow escape and aid. “Humanitarian international law must be observed,” said the Greens politician in Berlin.

Kyiv is watching Russian troops deploy for new attacks in Donbass, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a televised speech. “And we’re preparing for that.”

He reiterated the demand for help from Western partners, such as tanks, aircraft and artillery systems. In a video speech to the Australian Parliament, Zelensky later called for further sanctions against Moscow. Before the Dutch parliament, he urged stopping the import of energy from Russia.

On the other hand, according to the US government, Russia has withdrawn about 20 percent of its troops from the area around the capital Kyiv within 24 hours. Despite this, Russia’s bombardments continue in many parts of Ukraine.

A fuel-filled oil depot in the city of Dnipro was hit on Thursday night. The head of the regional council, Mykola Lukaschuk, said via the Telegram messaging service that debris from a rocket had also damaged two tank trucks. There were no dead or injured. Lukaschuk blamed Russia for the attack. The information could not be independently verified.

According to Ukrainian sources, a rocket hit a factory in Novomoskovsk, northeast of Dnipro, on Wednesday. There were no deaths, said Valentyn Resnichenko from the Dnipropetrovsk regional administration. Again, this information cannot be independently verified.

Current reporting on the crisis:

The general staff of the Ukrainian government also warned, among other things, of an ongoing threat from cruise missiles on Russian ships in the Black Sea. For example, the frigate “Admiral Makarov” at the Sevastopol naval base on the annexed peninsula of Crimea was retrofitted with “Caliber” missiles.

“Referendum” in Kherson?

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia is preparing a “referendum” in the conquered city of Kherson on the establishment of a pro-Moscow “People’s Republic”. The invading army is trying to control the areas in southern Ukraine with “civilian-military administrations”, the general staff said on Thursday night.

The pattern is similar to the procedure used in the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, which have now been recognized by Russia as independent. The Ukrainian President Zelensky recently spoke of the danger of such a “vote”.

The “referendum” should lead to the establishment of a quasi-state “People’s Republic of Cherson”, announced the Ukrainian general staff. The information is not independently verifiable. Strategically important Kherson with almost 300,000 inhabitants plays an important role in protecting the port city of Odessa in the south-west of the country.

Meanwhile, according to Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, the peace negotiations are continuing. So far, however, there have been no concrete results, said Selenski. On Friday they want to continue negotiations, but not in person, but online, said the Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia.

The Ukrainian side also proposed a meeting between the two heads of state, which Russia is said to have rejected. The Russian response said that more work had to be done on the draft treaty.

Doubts about Putin’s view of the Ukraine war

In the USA and Great Britain, secret services are reporting doubts as to whether the Russian leadership is being truthfully informed about the situation in the Ukraine war. White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said on Wednesday, citing intelligence information: “We believe he (Putin) is misinformed by his advisers about how poorly the Russian military is performing and how the sanctions have crippled the Russian economy.” Putin’s senior advisors are “too afraid to tell him the truth.”

Bedingfield further said that according to intelligence information, Putin felt deceived by the Russian military, causing ongoing tensions between the Russian president and his military leadership.

Pentagon spokesman Kirby said there was concern if Putin was misinformed or uninformed about what was happening in Ukraine. “It’s his military. It’s his war. He elected him.” The fact that the Russian President may not be fully aware of all the context and may not fully understand the extent to which his forces are failing in Ukraine is worrying.

The head of the British secret service GCHQ, Jeremy Fleming, also stated that it was becoming increasingly clear that Putin had completely misjudged the situation in Ukraine. He warned that Russia could use mercenaries from the notorious Wagner group to try to reverse the situation in Ukraine.

The Wagner Group is ready to send numerous experienced and newly recruited mercenaries to Ukraine. These could end up as cannon fodder to keep the death toll among soldiers down, Fleming said. According to Fleming, Putin underestimated the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians, but also the strong cohesion of the West – but meanwhile greatly overestimated the fighting spirit of his own troops.

More than four million people left Ukraine

Almost 2.4 million people from Ukraine have crossed the border into Poland since the Russian invasion began more than a month ago. On Wednesday alone, around 25,500 people were processed, the Polish border guard said on Thursday on the short message service Twitter. That is an increase of 14 percent compared to the previous day.

There is no official information on how many of the war refugees are staying in Poland or traveling on to other EU countries. Poland and Ukraine are connected by a border more than 500 kilometers long. Before the start of the war, Ukraine had more than 44 million inhabitants

To the knowledge of the Federal Police, around 5,100 other people from Ukraine sought refuge in Germany within one day. As the Federal Ministry of the Interior announced on Thursday, the police have registered a total of 288,500 war refugees since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine on February 24.

Since there are no fixed border controls and people with a Ukrainian passport can enter the country without a visa for 90 days, the total number of refugees from Ukraine in Germany is likely to be significantly higher overall. According to the UN refugee agency, more than four million people have left Ukraine. Before the war, the country had around 44 million inhabitants.

More: Putin’s shattered dream of a Russian empire – friendly states are keeping their distance

With agency material.