Brussels The Arctic was actually supposed to be a “zone of peace”: If the polar region was a place of power demonstrations and scenarios of deterrence during the Cold War, it was subsequently excluded from the geopolitical game of chess.
This makes the region the subject of power interests: New routes are emerging for shipping, access to raw materials – such as oil, gas and rare earths – is easier, more extensive research stations are possible, fishing can expand its fishing areas, which also results for the tourism industry get a new business.
And so the Arctic has meanwhile become a place of geo-economic strategies and military activities again, fueled above all by Russia and China.
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The melting ice is shifting Russia’s external borders, to which the country, which describes itself as the “leading Arctic power”, has to react with defense policy.
Almost a third of its national territory is in the polar region. Accordingly, Russia has invested in a number of new military bases on its arctic islands. This shows that Russia is preparing to react quickly in the event of a conflict.
China, too, describes itself as a “polar superpower”, although it does not border on the polar region. As part of the Chinese Silk Road Initiative, the Arctic Ocean is the third important corridor for China’s security of supply – alongside the land route through Central Asia and the long sea route through the South China Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea. The Arctic sea route would be an alternative route to the Suez Canal and therefore not only of economic but also military importance in the event of a conflict. Accordingly, Russia is also aggressively promoting this route.
The new European Arctic policy contains two declarations of war
For the EU, the Russian and Chinese activities are a security problem, especially since three of their member states and two members of the European Economic Area are polar states.
The polar region includes all countries whose territory extends into the northern polar circle. Specifically, these are the USA, Canada, Russia, as well as Denmark (for Greenland), Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Finland.
The EU had already presented Arctic strategies in 2008, 2012 and 2016: They mainly dealt with climate and environmental protection, development policy and international cooperation.
The ice of the Arctic region is melting. In Russia and China, this arouses ambitious geostrategic ambitions.
(Photo: imago / imagebroker)
In principle, the EU also wants to hold on to it, but China in particular is putting its conciliatory, cooperation-oriented approach to the test. Beijing is trying to exert influence, particularly in the smaller countries that have not received much attention in international politics. China, for example, operates the largest embassy in Iceland, and the People’s Republic has become the largest investor in Greenland.
“As a major political and economic player, the EU has to react to this,” says an EU official in Brussels. It is necessary for the EU to get actively involved. That is why the EU Commission is now presenting an Arctic strategy again.
However, since the EU is not a military power, it must continue to follow the classic diplomatic route: appeal to regional and international cooperation.
Nevertheless, the new European Arctic policy contains declarations of war on Russia and China. For example, they want to work more closely with allies. Specifically, the EU wants to expand its diplomatic activities in Greenland.
Although Greenland, as an autonomous area of Denmark itself, does not belong to the EU, Brussels has a certain influence there. The EU can best help shape global Arctic policy from Greenland. A permanent local presence could help curb the strong influence of the Chinese.
EU wants to stop promoting fossil fuels in the Arctic
Finally, it is also about climate policy: the average temperature on the polar ice caps increases three times as fast as in the rest of the world – consequent action is required. From the point of view of Europeans, this means that fossil fuels should no longer be burned. However: The majority of the as yet undiscovered oil and gas reserves are suspected to be in the polar regions.
And this is precisely where the EU relies on confrontation with Russia. Because the gigantic empire has discovered a future business area here. Moscow relies on economic growth through Arctic resources and uses taxpayers’ money to invest in colonizing the Russian Arctic.
With its hunger for energy, China is also hoping for arctic fuels, for example hydrogen produced with natural gas.
The EU, on the other hand, wants to end the production of fossil fuels in the Arctic. “The EU will insist that oil, coal and gas stay in the ground,” writes the Commission in its new strategy. For example, the member states are to be prohibited from buying energy from Arctic sources. The US and Canada are already banning offshore oil and gas drilling at the North Pole.
It remains to be seen whether, against this background, it will be possible to keep the Arctic free of conflict, as is the goal of the EU. In any case, the geopolitical game about the North Pole has only just begun.
More: More and more extreme weather, ice-free Arctic: the six most important findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.