NATO expects Russia to step up its offensive in eastern and southern Ukraine

Abandoned Russian tank near Sumy in north-eastern Ukraine

According to NATO, Russia is rearranging and regrouping its troops.

(Photo: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire)

Brussels NATO expects an intensified Russian offensive in eastern and southern Ukraine in the coming weeks. Russia will try to take over the entire Donbass and create a land bridge to the already occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference on Tuesday.

According to the military alliance, the clear movement of troops away from the capital Kyiv has to do with the fact that the focus of the Russian armed forces is now shifting eastwards. The troops are therefore regrouped and re-armed.

Against the background of these developments, according to Stoltenberg, the foreign ministers of the member states will discuss at a meeting in Brussels this Wednesday and Thursday how the Ukrainian armed forces could be given additional support. “The Allies are determined to continue supporting Ukraine.

This includes anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft systems and other equipment,” said the Norwegian. NATO also wants to provide additional support in defending against cyber attacks.

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Stoltenberg currently sees no chance for a “substantive dialogue” with Russia. Russia is a country that blatantly violates international law, that uses military force against an independent sovereign nation like Ukraine, and that is responsible for atrocities.

At the same time, Stoltenberg emphasized that NATO must remain in contact with Russia. Russia is a neighbor and the relationship is also about issues such as risk reduction, transparency, conflict mitigation and arms control issues.

Reinforcement of NATO’s eastern flank

At the same time, NATO is making progress in its efforts to strengthen its eastern flank. As a spokeswoman for the military alliance confirmed to the German Press Agency, the four new multinational battlegroups in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia have reached the first stage of operational readiness. Its construction was only announced a few weeks ago.

NATO initially did not comment on the exact composition and size of the so-called battle groups. According to a statement from March 21, however, 2,100 soldiers from countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and the USA were already present in Slovakia at the time. In Hungary there were 800 soldiers from Croatia, in Bulgaria 900 from the USA and in Romania 3300 from countries such as France, Belgium, Italy and the USA.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

Ukraine can count on more weapons from NATO countries.

(Photo: dpa)

The new battlegroups are intended to further increase deterrence and defense capabilities in light of the Russian war against Ukraine. So far, NATO has only permanently stationed multinational units in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as well as in Poland. Normally, these battlegroups are about 1000 to 1200 soldiers strong, but they have recently been significantly strengthened because of the Ukraine war.

“We now have 40,000 soldiers under direct NATO command in the eastern part of the alliance,” said Stoltenberg. In addition, there would be hundreds of thousands of troops on increased alert and hundreds of ships and planes.

Numerous German soldiers are also involved in the deterrence against Russia. Germany is currently leading a battle group in Lithuania. Air force soldiers with the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system were also deployed to Slovakia in March.

New battlegroups in four Eastern European countries

It was initially unclear when the new battlegroups in Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria would also receive the so-called Full Operational Capability certification after the Initial Operational Capability. It is also still unclear what the long-term NATO presence on the eastern flank should look like.

One option is to station brigades in the eastern alliance area for the first time. They could each be around 5,000 soldiers strong and be supplemented, for example, by elements of the air and sea forces or special forces.

However, such a step is likely to further increase tensions with Russia. Moscow would probably argue that the long-term deployment of such brigades is not compatible with the NATO-Russia Founding Act. In it, NATO committed itself to refraining from permanently stationing “substantial combat troops” in the eastern alliance area.

The battalion-sized battlegroups stationed up to now do not fall into this category according to the NATO interpretation. At the same time, it is considered unlikely that NATO will refrain from stationing brigades because of the Founding Act.

Secretary General Stoltenberg has already made it clear that Russia cannot expect NATO to stick to all the 1997 agreements. The Founding Act has a clear connection to the security environment in 1997, when Russia was still seen as a strategic partner, he said recently. Today we are in a completely different security environment and NATO will do “what is necessary”.

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