(Photo: Klawe Rzeczy, Reuters, AP, dpa, Imago)
It couldn’t be more symbolic: Just two days before the first anniversary of the Russian attack on Ukraine, Wang Yi, China’s top foreign politician, paid a visit to the man who brought war back to Europe: Vladimir Putin. Russia’s President welcomes his Chinese visitor with arms wide open, both laughing. “China-Russia relations are stable as a mountain,” Wang said. The scenes are accompanied by concern in Europe and the USA that Beijing also wants to support Moscow with weapons.
With this visit at the latest, the China optimist should have realized that the People’s Republic is firmly on Russia’s side. At the same time, Beijing is positioning itself more and more offensively against the USA. The formation of blocs, which Beijing likes to accuse others of – it has long been actively pursued by the Chinese government.
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China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping is likely to present his peace plan for Ukraine on Friday. Few believe that China could be an honest mediator – and rightly so. China is a party to this conflict.
It is not to be expected that Beijing will also take Kiev’s interests into account. It will be more about showing the countries of the Global South, but also the critics of the USA and their allies in Europe: China is the great power that acts responsibly, the USA is the warmonger.
To put it very simply, the long-term goal of the Chinese government is a world in which certain rules still exist, but compliance with which is determined by the major powers – above all China. The Chinese government has repeatedly publicly propagated its plans for this new world order – most recently, for example, in the paper on China’s “global security initiative” published on Tuesday.
Putin receives China’s chief diplomat Wang Yi
In such a world, which is not based on the strength of law but on the law of the strongest, every smaller country would be at the mercy of these great powers. According to this way of thinking, it is also legitimate for great powers like Russia to move borders and appropriate foreign national territories in violation of international law.
The western alliance is resolutely defending itself against Russia. On the other hand, there can be no talk of determination when it comes to Beijing. It is now necessary to set limits in terms of compliance with international rules and the Taiwan question.
A credible deterrent combined with an offer of dialogue – that is the right strategy. Above all, Europe and the US must learn from the mistakes they made with regard to Russia.
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It is therefore good when the United States repeatedly publicly emphasizes that they are watching very closely whether Beijing is breaking the taboo and supplying arms to Russia – and that the consequences would be devastating if it did so. The same applies to a possible attack on Taiwan, which China still does not want to rule out.
Europe and in particular the most important countries Germany and France should position themselves more closely at the side of the USA. The German economy also plays a decisive role in this. The old formula that successful foreign trade commitments by companies also benefit the countries they come from no longer applies.
The broader the companies position themselves, the more credibly politicians can threaten China with economic sanctions – always hoping that this will never happen.
The Russian leadership has long believed that Germany in particular would not go along with sanctions against Moscow out of self-interest. Beijing must not get the same impression of the Taiwan conflict.
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