Beijing, Berlin, Paris Before leaving for China, Emmanuel Macron spoke to Joe Biden on the phone. The Presidents of France and the United States have announced their joint will to make Beijing “accelerate an end to the war in Ukraine” and “build a sustainable peace in the region,” it said from the Élysée Palace.
Macron, who arrived in China on Wednesday together with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for a three-day state visit, has not yet given up hope that Head of State Xi Jinping will make a constructive contribution to the Ukraine war. Even if the frustration about the support for Russian President Vladimir Putin is great not only in Paris but also in other European capitals.
The illusion that persisted despite clear signals from Beijing has given way to disillusionment. A Chinese mediator role is now considered impossible in both Paris and Berlin. Still, upon his arrival, Macron said Beijing could play an “important role” in the search for peace. It would be wrong to let China talk only to Russia.
However, the chances of success for the meeting with Xi on Thursday are assessed cautiously in the Élysée Palace: Macron will not be able to dissuade the Chinese leadership from their “red lines” and persuade them to condemn the Russian attack. The aim, however, is to explore scope for “initiatives that have a positive impact on the Ukrainian population” and “to identify a way for a medium-term solution to this war”.
An adviser to Macron said: “Given the close ties between China and Russia, it is clear that China is one of the few countries in the world, if not the only country in the world, that can have a game-changing effect in the conflict – in one direction or the other.” Linked to this is the warning to Beijing not to side with Russia even more with any arms deliveries.
Disillusionment after Xi’s visit to Moscow
At the G20 summit in Bali last November, Macron still hoped that Xi could mediate in the conflict. But the French President knows how to interpret the latest signals from Beijing. During a state visit to Moscow at the end of March, Xi and Putin, who referred to each other as “dear friends”, even announced a “new era” in bilateral relations.
Despite all the claims, China remains on the side of Russia in the case of the Ukraine war.
(Photo: via REUTERS)
Given the harsh Western sanctions against Russia, trade with China is seen as a vital lifeline for Moscow, continuing to provide the country with money and technology. Nevertheless, the Chinese government is trying to present itself as a neutral mediator in the Ukraine war.
On the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, she presented a twelve-point paper on the “political solution to the Ukraine crisis”. It calls for a ceasefire and peace talks.
>> Read here: Foreign Minister Baerbock will travel to China in mid-April
However, the paper does not contain any concrete proposals as to what a peace plan might look like. It also does not mention a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. While Xi has held regular exchanges with Putin, the Chinese leader has not spoken to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky once since the war began. Xi is very busy, China’s ambassador to the EU, Fu Cong, explained in an interview with the “New York Times”.
Warning of Chinese sham neutrality
In an analysis, Marc Julienne and Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean from the Paris think tank Institut français des relations Internationales (Ifri) warn against underestimating the unifying effect of the anti-Western positions in Moscow and Beijing. Europe’s attempts to hold China accountable are “not only illusory, but fuel China’s discourse to present itself as a pacifist and constructive actor while fully supporting Russia.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is meeting with Xi together with Macron, issued a warning to Beijing last week: China’s behavior in the Ukraine war will be a “decisive factor” for the future of its relations with Europe. “Far from being deterred by the cruel and illegal invasion of Ukraine, President Xi maintains his boundless friendship with Putin.”
>> Read here: Xi, Putin usher in ‘new era’ of bilateral ties
The federal government is also increasing the pressure on China. In early March, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his message to Beijing was clear: “Use your influence in Moscow to push for the withdrawal of Russian troops.”
The German economy was unusually clear on the occasion of Macron’s trip. “With its stance in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, China has lost a lot of trust in Germany and Europe,” explained the general manager of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), Tanja Gönner. Beijing must “also work towards Russia to ensure compliance with the principles of the United Nations and thus the preservation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine”.
More: “Good Cop, Bad Cop” – the distribution of roles by Macron and von der Leyen in Beijing