Paris Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are again fighting the presidential election in France: According to projections, the president and the right-wing populist, who lost five years ago, entered the runoff election on Sunday evening, which will take place in two weeks. The outcome of the direct duel between Macron and Le Pen should then be closer than in 2017.
Macron, who is at the head of a center alliance, won around 28 percent of the vote in the first ballot. He did better than the last polls before the election had suggested. According to the forecasts, Le Pen followed with a good 23 percent. Just behind him in third place was left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon with around 22 percent.
The candidates of the other parties were all in the single digits – including the representatives of the two former people’s parties of the left and right center, the Socialists and the conservative-bourgeois camp, which now operates under the name Republicans.
The big question now is how the voters of the defeated presidential candidates will behave in the second ballot. Voter turnout will also be an important factor: According to the first figures, more than a quarter of those eligible to vote did not vote on Sunday. It could not be ruled out that the previous negative turnout record from 2002 would be reached.
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The French have a choice between two opposing visions for the country’s future. Macron takes a pro-European line, and is more liberal on social and economic issues. Le Pen stands for a nationalist approach, but since her defeat in 2017 she has tried to change her image. In the past, the right-wing populist has been close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, even though she now condemns the war of aggression in Ukraine.
On Sunday evening, Le Pen called on “all those who did not vote for Emmanuel Macron today” to support her candidacy. “What is at stake on April 24 is not a choice of circumstances, but a choice for society, a choice for civilization,” she said.
Macron, on the other hand, appealed to the French to erect a “bulwark against the extreme right” in the second ballot. Nothing has been decided yet, he warned his followers. “The debate we will have over the next 15 days is crucial for our country and for Europe.”
Macron’s supporters erupted in cheers as the first results were announced at the Porte de Versailles exhibition center on the southwestern outskirts of Paris. A white lettering on a blue background is emblazoned behind the stage: “Nous tous”, in English: “We all”. It’s half of Macron’s campaign motto.
The other is “Avec vous” – the promise that the President will “stand by your side”. At the entrance, helpers hand out T-shirts with the slogan, French flags and EU flags. Wine and draft beer are served at the bar.
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Le Pen was much more optimistic when it came to the choice of drinks: Champagne bottles are lying in buckets on ice, the label says “Marine Présidente”. Her party, the Rassemblement National, has invited to the Pavillon Chesnaie du Roy, a wooden pavilion in east Paris known for boisterous celebrations.
When the results hit the screens at 8 p.m., there was little disappointment. Le Pen’s supporters cheered and clapped, after all, the candidate was able to improve her result in the first ballot compared to 2017. When the right-wing populist gave her speech on election night, the crowd chanted: “We will win.”
Five years ago, Macron defeated Le Pen in the runoff election by 66 percent to 34 percent. This year, before the first round, some polls on a possible duel shrank the gap between the president and the challenger to four to five percentage points.
In the past, all political forces in France had come together to form a defensive front when the right-wing camp made it into the runoff. This phenomenon was particularly pronounced in 2002 in the resistance against right-wing extremist and anti-Semitic Jean-Marie Le Pen, party founder and father of the current candidate. In 2017 the front crumbled a bit.
“What is at stake on April 24 is not a choice of circumstances, but a choice for society, a choice for civilization.”
(Photo: dpa)
On Sunday evening, the Socialist, Republican, Green and Communist candidates declared that they would vote for Macron in the runoff. Third-placed Mélenchon made no direct recommendation for the president, but warned his voters: “We must not give a single vote to Ms. Le Pen.” However, it is unclear whether all of her supporters will follow the request.
Because Le Pen has changed in recent years. Not only did she change the name of her party from Front National to Rassemblement National. The right-wing populist tried to create a softer image and focused on being close to the people.
In the environment of Le Pen, the strategy is called “devilation”. She no longer categorically rejects the European Union, and she no longer wants to lead France out of the euro. Instead of tirades against immigrants, she formulates her criticism of the government’s migration policy more cautiously.
In recent months, she has mainly spoken about the purchasing power concerns of the French in times of rising prices. Macron portrayed her as the aloof “president of the rich”. Le Pen also said on Sunday evening: “I want to be president of all French people.” She will protect French values and “put the country back in order”.
Of the losing candidates, only right-wing nationalist Éric Zemmour called for their election, whose shrill warnings about foreign infiltration during the election campaign also helped Le Pen appear more moderate. Zemmour got around seven percent on Sunday.
The left-wing populist came third with around 21 percent.
(Photo: Imago)
The conservative-bourgeois Republicans do not have many votes to cast, their presidential candidate Valérie Pécresse got a historically poor result with five percent. So it comes down to left-wing voters, many of whom are disappointed in Macron. They could decide differently than their candidates’ recommendations – or stay at home in two weeks.
“Macron’s image isn’t the same as it was in 2017,” said Jérôme Fourquet, head of policy at French polling institute Ifop. At that time, Macron was the young, fresh hope. At 44, the President is still anything but old. “But in part of the population, after one term in office, he is viewed very critically and is even hated.”
The traditional left camp is increasingly doubting the left-liberal label that Macron attached to himself in 2017. “The view in this milieu is that Macron made right-wing politics,” he said. About half of this group of voters are toying with the idea of staying away from the runoff election rather than voting for Macron again and saving him.
The president entered the election campaign late, although no one had seriously doubted his ambitions for a second term. Macron justified his reluctance with the war in Ukraine, which required his full attention as head of state.
Macron referred above all to the economic record of his tenure, falling unemployment and increasing growth. He wants to continue his reforms – and announced the unpopular goal of raising the retirement age from 62 to 65 in the event of re-election.
Macron also wants to continue fighting for his vision of a “sovereign” European Union, which must become more independent in terms of energy imports, future technologies in industry and security policy. At its core, the Macron 2.0 project is not fundamentally different from its program five years ago.
In view of the rising poll numbers for Le Pen, the President has recently also increasingly addressed the issue of purchasing power. Macron recalled that his government had already spent more than 20 billion euros capping gas and electricity prices. On Sunday evening he said: “The only project for more purchasing power is our project.”
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