Salvador It is not only the official communiqués with which Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva shows his government’s foreign policy line. It is also the improvised speeches, the interviews and the often pure symbolism with which Lula conducts foreign policy in his third term.
Like now after Lula’s five-day trip to China and the United Arab Emirates: the Brazilian President and the most important ministers in his cabinet received the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The Russian politician began his tour of Latin America in Brazil, which he will continue with visits to the authoritarian regimes of Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.
Following the meeting with Brazilian incumbent Mauro Vieira Lavrov affirmed the common position between Brazil and Russia in the Ukraine war. “Both states have a multipolar world view, in which we consider several countries, not just a few,” said the Russian foreign minister. He also thanked Brazil for its “contribution” to finding a solution to the conflict with Ukraine.
During his trips abroad over the past few days, Lula had increasingly raised doubts that Brazil was still pursuing a neutral position in the new geopolitical conflicts. More and more often, Lula shows understanding for the aggressor Russia than for the victim Ukraine. Emphasizing his similarities with China and snubbing the US, Lula is pursuing a tactic.
Because Lula sees the US as the mastermind behind the Ukraine war. “The US needs to stop promoting the war,” Lula said in Abu Dhabi.
Lula snubs the US
The fact that Lula accused the US and Europe of contributing to the continuation of the Ukraine war with their arms deliveries is likely to cause continued outrage in the West, instead of working for peace. As a potential negotiator for a “peace club” tasked with negotiating an end to the war, Lula keeps bringing herself into play. So far, however, without any significant reactions in the West, Russia or China.
Lavrov sees similarities between Russia and Brazil.
(Photo: IMAGO/Fotoarena)
Ukraine is no longer likely to accept Brazil as a neutral negotiator. Two weeks ago, Lula sent his foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim to Moscow, where he was received by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Lula has so far turned down invitations from the Ukrainian government. Brazil’s president has repeatedly indicated that he sees NATO, and thus the USA, as responsible for the war as he does Ukraine.
The Ukraine, like the West, is also unlikely to like the fact that Brazil has more than tripled its imports from Russia since 2020 to $7.8 billion last year. The main imports were fertilizers for Brazilian agriculture.
In addition, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Brazilian President also blames the USA for other problems in the world – while he spares the world powers China and Russia any form of criticism.
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lula strikes an increasingly sharp tone towards the USA: During his visit to China, he said that the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – should finally abandon the US dollar as their currency. He wants to strengthen the BRICS bank New Development Bank as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund, which would bully developing countries with its conditions.
Anti-Americanism as a strategy
He also visited the IT company Huawei in China to demonstrate that Brazil does not allow anyone to dictate which technologies are used. The US is raising allegations of espionage against Chinese IT manufacturers such as Huawei and ZTE. Huawei denies this.
Lula, 77, is repeating the traditional anti-US slogans of the Latin American left, partly to score points with his left-wing supporters. He is helped by the fact that French President Emmanuel Macron made similar statements to the United States during his trip to China and did not criticize China’s support for Russia or the democratic deficits.
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Lula’s strategy can be explained by the fact that the Brazilian is aiming for a prominent role in the BRICS and the G20 in his third term, which he held in his second term from 2006 to 2010. But there is a danger that Lula will overthink Brazil: Brazil is neither the economically booming country it was back then, nor can it speak for Latin America as a regional power, nor is it militarily influential.
In short, Brazil does not have the geopolitical clout to act as a peace broker in a distant conflict.
Oliver Stuenkel, professor of politics at the Fundação Getulio Vargas in São Paulo, says that the Brazilian government has the idea that the worst that could happen is if the peace initiative fails. “But in fact there is a risk that Brazil will permanently damage its relations with Europe and the United States,” says the expert.
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First publication: 04/17/2023, 9:31 p.m.