Berlin A man named Vladimir Prebilic is supposed to keep an eye on whether everything is going right this time. Under the direction of the Slovene, six teams from the Council of Europe will observe the elections for the Berlin House of Representatives in all twelve Berlin districts on Sunday.
Elections are being held in Berlin – again. After serious breakdowns in autumn 2021, the election to the House of Representatives must be repeated, so the courts have ordered.
Politically, however, the election chaos will probably not lead to a completely different political constellation lead, as many might believe given the irregularities in the 2021 election. Like a year and a half ago, a head-to-head race is looming in the battle for the Red City Hall – in which everything could end up staying the same.
According to surveys, the CDU could end up ahead of the SPD this time, but there is much to suggest that the previous red-green-red coalition under Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey (SPD) will continue to govern.
The fact that this is so is due to the peculiarities and peculiarities of Berlin politics. The reinvigorated CDU simply lacks the coalition options. CDU top candidate Kai Wegner only has a chance of becoming governor if Giffey’s election is extremely bad.
Politically, Berlin ticks to the left
Politically, the German capital traditionally ticks to the left. The state associations of SPD and Greens seem almost socialist compared to other state associations.
The Left Party, which used to be strong in Berlin, also has to lose feathers in the capital, but is stable at eleven percent, so that in the end the left-wing camp made up of SPD, Greens and Left Party should have a majority.
The latest polls see the SPD at 21 percent and the Greens at 18 percent. The CDU would get 25 percent, the AfD ten percent and the FDP six percent.
SPD top candidate Franziska Giffey is keeping all options open in view of these difficult poll numbers. “I’m not ruling anything out. Except for the AfD,” she said in an interview. SPD, Greens and Left would have managed many things in the current three-party coalition in one year. “Nevertheless, you have to look at the issues that will come up in the future: housing construction, economic development, internal security and the social city.”
Not everyone in the Berlin SPD is behind Giffey.
(Photo: dpa)
The statements are seen as an indication that Giffey actually wants to forge a traffic light alliance with the Greens and the FDP. In fact, there are clear tensions in the previous red-green-red alliance, especially between Giffey and Environment Senator Bettina Jarasch, who is again running for the Greens as the top candidate.
>> Read here: Berlin will vote again on February 12 – the most important facts at a glance
For example, expropriations in residential construction or the blocking of the central Friedrichstraße for car traffic are disputed. Giffey says the differences within the coalition on transport and housing policies are huge.
In 2021, Giffey was unable to enforce a traffic light
However, Giffey had also shown himself open to a traffic light coalition in the 2021 election campaign, but after the election he opted for a left-wing alliance. A major reason for this: Giffey could not push through a traffic light coalition in their own national association.
Nothing has changed in this situation, the left want to keep to themselves in Berlin. And Giffey is not without controversy in its own ranks. At a state party conference in June 2022, she received just 58.9 percent when re-elected as state chairman, a disastrous result.
Only a surprisingly strong performance by the SPD could cause things to slip. Giffey could then proclaim the election victory as hers and perhaps make her national association more docile.
In the end, the left-wing camp made up of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party should achieve a majority.
(Photo: dpa)
But first she has to land in front of the Greens. For a long time it didn’t really look like it. After an interim high, the Greens have recently lost ground in polls and are threatening to lose out in a duel for the strongest force on the left.
But it is impossible to predict a halfway certain election outcome in view of the very different forecasts. “We continue to fight, because there are more uncertainties in this election than ever before,” says Greens’ top candidate Jarasch.
Also limited green power options
Voter turnout this time is likely to be significantly lower than in 2021, when the federal elections were held at the same time. Instead of a turnout of 75.4 percent back then, election strategists now expect a turnout of only 50 to 55 percent.
But Jarasch’s options for power are also limited if she actually ends up in front of the SPD. FDP top candidate Sebastian Czaja has already ruled out electing Jarasch as governing mayor. Likewise, CDU top candidate Wegner. Jarasch operates a “unilateral policy against the car. That can’t be done with me. point,” he explained.
>> Read here: Franziska Giffey before the Berlin election: “There are very different views in this coalition on central points”
Jarasch remained the obvious left-wing alliance under green leadership. Only: Will the SPD participate? “If the SPD elects a Green mayor, they threaten to lose Berlin structurally to the Greens,” says a top representative of the Greens. Junior partners in a coalition with the CDU could therefore be the lesser evil for the SPD than junior partners in a green-led left-wing alliance. That would then be the chance for CDU top candidate Wegner.
A “Germany” coalition of the CDU, SPD and Liberals is also conceivable if the CDU and SPD alone are not enough. “A Germany alliance of SPD, CDU and FDP is still possible,” said Berlin political scientist Gero Neugebauer.
But here, too, ditches would have to be overcome. The CDU, for example, triggered considerable criticism in the SPD with its question about the first names of the suspects in the New Year’s Eve riots in the capital. It is unclear whether Giffey would remain in the Senate under a black or green mayor. So far, she has left this question unanswered.
More: Election before the repetition: how realistic is black and green for Berlin?