The leading economic researchers no longer expect the German economy to shrink in 2023.
(Photo: IMAGO/imagebroker)
Berlin The leading economic research institutes are no longer assuming that the German economy will shrink in the current year. In their new economic forecast for the Federal Ministry of Economics, which they will present on Wednesday, they expect slight growth of 0.3 percent. The Handelsblatt learned this from informed circles.
In autumn, the institutes had still expected a shrinkage of 0.4 percent for 2023.
For 2024, however, the economic researchers are correcting their growth forecast slightly downwards. They now expect an increase of 1.5 percent. In autumn they had still expected 1.7 percent.
The stronger growth in the coming year is said to be related in particular to a fall in consumer prices. In 2023, the institutes still expect an inflation rate of six percent. In 2024, this should then drop to 2.4 percent. The Reuters news agency first reported the figures.
The “joint diagnosis” was developed by the four Leibniz Institutes RWI in Essen, Ifo Institute in Munich, IfW in Kiel and IWH in Halle. They prepare the economic forecast twice a year on behalf of the Ministry of Economic Affairs. The federal government uses the figures as a basis for its own investigation. Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) will present the new government forecast on April 26th.
More: Why economists are reassessing inflation – and what that means for politics