Last minute! CBRT Announced its October Interest Rate Decision, Here is the Reaction of the Dollar!

CBRT October announced the bear interest rate decision.

The CBRT Monetary Policy Committee increased interest rates to 35% with a 500 basis point increase in October.

CBRT increased the rate to 30% with a 500 basis point interest rate increase in September.

What Was the Dollar’s Reaction to the Interest Rate Decision?

As you may remember, in previous meetings it was stated that the low interest policy would be abandoned and interest rates would be increased.

At this point, while the CBRT continues to increase interest rates, the dollar is traded at 28.13 TL after the decision.

The text of the decision is as follows:

“The Monetary Policy Committee (Board) decided to increase the one-week repo auction interest rate, which is the policy rate, from 30 percent to 35 percent.

The Board decided to continue the monetary tightening process in order to establish disinflation as soon as possible, anchor inflation expectations and control the deterioration in pricing behavior.

Inflation was above expectations in the third quarter of the year. With the cost-oriented pressures arising from wages and exchange rates that have been effective recently, the transition of tax regulations to inflation has been significantly completed. The strong course of domestic demand, the rigidity in service prices and the deterioration in inflation expectations continue to put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, while inflation is expected to remain close to the upper limit of the forecast range in the Inflation Report (Report) at the end of the year, it is also evaluated that the main trend of monthly inflation will decline. On the other hand, geopolitical developments pose a risk to the inflation outlook due to oil prices. The Board is determined to establish disinflation in line with the path in the Report in 2024, with the effect of monetary tightening steps.

Direct foreign investments, the balanced course of external financing conditions, the ongoing increase in reserves, the support of the balancing of demand to the current account and the increase in domestic and foreign demand for Turkish lira assets will make a strong contribution to price stability.

The policy rate will be determined to provide monetary and financial conditions that will reduce the main trend of inflation and reach the 5 percent target in the medium term. Monetary tightening will be gradually strengthened when and to the extent necessary until a significant improvement in the inflation outlook is achieved.

The Board is simplifying the existing micro- and macroprudential framework in a way that will increase the functionality of market mechanisms and strengthen macro-financial stability. The simplification process is progressing gradually, taking into account impact analyses. In this context, the monetary transmission mechanism will continue to be strengthened with additional steps to increase the share of Turkish lira deposits. In addition to increasing interest rates, the Board will continue to make selective credit and quantitative tightening decisions that will support the monetary tightening process.

Indicators regarding inflation and its main trend will be closely monitored, and the Board will continue to use all the tools at its disposal with determination in line with the main goal of price stability.

“The Board will continue to make its decisions in a predictable, data-driven and transparent framework.”

*This is not investment advice.