Officially, neither the Union nor the FDP nor the Greens have ruled out a joint coalition, but a dispute is already raging between the parties as to who is responsible for the bursting of the Jamaica dreams. The CDU and above all the CSU point to the liberals who had joined the green desire for talks with the SPD. The FDP, which does not want to take the blame a second time after 2017, sees Markus Söder as the Jamaica saboteur.
After the decision by the FDP and the Greens, the CSU chairman spoke of a “de facto rejection of Jamaica” and a “preliminary decision” for a traffic light coalition. The CDU boss and unsuccessful candidate for chancellor Armin Laschet, however, confirmed that he would continue to be available for talks. This publicly exhibited disagreement among the top of the Union confirmed in retrospect all the skeptics in the FDP and the Greens, who consider this unsorted Union to be unable to explore, let alone govern.
This finding is unlikely to change for the better anytime soon. On the contrary: The ongoing traffic light sounding is causing the pressure of dissatisfaction in the pocket of the Union to rise again sharply. And that was already high after Laschet’s historic election bankruptcy. The question now is whether the CDU boss will still be able to find an outlet by setting up and implementing an orderly transition process to determine his successor. Or whether everything is flying around his ears.
Laschet’s rivals are already on their way
That is why Laschet has to keep clinging to the Jamaica straw. As long as an alliance with the FDP and the Greens is at least a theoretical option, someone at the top of the CDU is needed who is available as a contact person and negotiator.
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But how long will Laschet stay there? His rivals in the CDU are on the way to sound out their chances. And Söder has further shortened the remaining term of the CDU chairman with his interpretation of the Jamaica rejection.
For this, the Bavarian Prime Minister has to take a lot of criticism, from the FDP, but also from the sister party CDU. Söder had no increased interest in saving Laschet into the Chancellery with an unstable Jamaica coalition. It stands to reason that the disappointment about the failed candidate for chancellor also resonates. Much of what Söder had warned about came true in the election campaign.
It is not unreasonable to assume that the CSU boss would have done better. Laschet may be a well-moderating Prime Minister and a politician with a clear compass of values, but this summer he was above all a lousy campaigner.
If Söder now says that the Union must also be about self-respect, then he is not so wrong. Laschet’s insistence that there was no “main election winner” seemed like a defiant denial of reality. But at least at this point he still radiated something like a will to fight, apparently actually saw a chance at the Chancellery.
The CDU chief only looks exhausted
Meanwhile, Laschet, worn down by the cross drivers in the Union, only seems exhausted. The unwavering ingratiation to the FDP and the Greens, after they have now initially decided in favor of the SPD, is tactically understandable, but also radiates desperation. The Union is in the process of dwarfing itself.
No wonder, then, that not only in the CSU, but also in the CDU, many now consider walking upright into the opposition to be the better option. This will very likely be done without a laschet at the top. The desire to involve the base is great. This is understandable after the CDU board decided against all warnings from the base in favor of Laschet when it ran for chancellor.
With the ongoing dismantling of Laschet, the remaining chances for Jamaica continue to decrease. The decision by the Greens and the FDP for the first exploratory round with the SPD could have more far-reaching consequences than the two parties can agree with. While the Greens are only losing their leverage for negotiations with the Social Democrats, the Liberals would finally lose their favorite partner as chaos spreads in the CDU.
The FDP is thus caught in the traffic light trap. The more incapable of government the Union appears in its self-discovery phase, the greater the pressure on the SPD, FDP and Greens to get a coalition through. The blame for failure would be even harder than for Jamaica.
More: Laschet announces withdrawal from party leadership – CDU economic wing wants membership decision