World’s largest financial services conglomerate JPMorgan made assessments on gold and commodity prices.
According to the statements made by Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at JPMorgan, uncertainty continues in the global commodity market and investors are turning to take measures. Kaneva stated that the net risk in commodity futures has declined to the lowest levels since the beginning of 2019, adding that investors are acting more cautiously due to recession concerns. Drawing attention to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), Kaneva announced that the index dropped to a 17-month low at the end of May, dropping 10 percent this year.
“In this environment of high uncertainty, it is difficult to have a constructive view on a heavily cyclical asset such as commodities,” Kaneva said, noting the overall risk of the commodity market. It was also stated in the report that the commodity market behaves differently during recession and economic growth periods, and the uncertainty stems from the lack of a definite recession date.
In the report, it was stated that oil demand was above expectations and JPMorgan predicts Brent crude oil to reach $85 per barrel by the end of 2023. However, in 2024, it is predicted that there may be a decrease in oil prices due to the increase in the stocks of countries such as the USA, which have a high oil consumption capacity.
In the report, which states that gold and silver prices are supported, per ounce of gold 2012 It is estimated that silver will hover around $26 per ounce.
If the Target Amounts, What Will the Outlook Be Under Grams Against TL?
According to the evaluations of JPMorgan, the world’s largest financial services conglomerate, a possible rise in gold prices may lead to a rise in gram gold prices. Therefore, since gold prices have a global standard, it is almost certain that the increase in dollar-denominated ounce gold prices will also affect gram gold prices against the Turkish Lira.
JPMorgan calculates the value of gram gold in Turkish Lira as TL 1,700 if the target price of $2,012, which it has determined for gold prices, is realized, if the dollar rate remains constant at 26.30. Likewise, considering that the dollar exchange rate has depreciated up to 27 and 28 levels, the value of gram gold in Turkish Lira at the end of the year may be around 1.746 TL and 1.811 TL, respectively.
However, if the level of 30 TL, which foreign banks expect for the end of the year, is realized in general, it seems possible for gram gold to reach the level of 1,940 TL, based on JPMorgan’s estimation of gold prices.
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